Where do you think the plot is going?

[Adel34]

All I can think is : What's vermouth secret? Why does Vermouth protects Conan, and if she knows the real itendity of Ai Haibara (Sherry/Shiho), why she's hiding that?

Isn't it because Shinichi saved her life back in America?

[PhantomWriter]

All I can think is : What's vermouth secret? Why does Vermouth protects Conan, and if she knows the real itendity of Ai Haibara (Sherry/Shiho), why she's hiding that?

Isn't it because Shinichi saved her life back in America?

One of the reasons, yes. The other main reason is because she does not seem to want the Black Organization to know about the shrinking effect of APTX, for whatever reason.

[Olly]

I thought it's worth pointing out that Amuro didn't tell BO or even Vermouth about the mysterious man (Akai) he saw in the Bell Tree Express episodes. If he did, then it's likely that BO would find out that Sherry is alive or give it a real possibility since Amuro didn't do it on purpose. It'd also raise a whole lot of possibilities for BO, including if Akai is alive or not, and they'd search everyone who was on that train to find out who that man is. If that happened, then it's goodnight for a lot of the main characters. They'd definitely notice the similarities between Haibara and Sherry. There's still a little suspicion about Kogoro because of episode 425, and seeing him in the train again would definitely tip Gin off.

Amuro is definitely a secretive type like Vermouth. If he only cared about what's best for BO, then he would have told them about the mysterious man to make them cognizant about a potentially dangerous man.

[AVA]

But, with the other points, I really am not sure about this second brother... I have the feeling it's Subaru and Sera's using a half-truth to avoid revealing that Shuichi's alive. This whole thing came out of left field. Or Gosho is trolling again. If the second brother is another character, I am under the impression he's not going to be Black Org. unless the twist is that Amuro is the second brother. (Which would incidentally mean Subaru/Shuichi is lying about his age.)

I thought we already knew Subaru was lying about his age? It's been a while since I read the chapter, but didn't Subaru introduce himself as a grad student in his early '20s? Shuuichi is older (I want to say 28, but I can't remember where I got that number). We know he's been working on the Black Org case for more than five years, and was with the FBI before that, so mathematically he can't be as young as Subaru claims. (Which would be further evidence against Amuro being the oldest brother, unless he's borrowing some of Vermouth's face cream and is actually in his 30s.)

The insertion of the "second brother" reveal seemed a bit awkward. It's been suggested that Sera could be trying to cover for her "dead" brother Shuuichi, but it doesn't seem likely that Akai would let her call him to consult every time there's a case when he's 1) working undercover, or 2) frequently in the area with Conan-tachi, where a ringing cell phone might be incriminating (we've see how well that works out for Conan/Shinichi). Also, there's too much information given for it to just be a quick cover-up (if she were lying, I doubt she'd make up the stuff about how her other brother didn't resemble herself and Shuu). In the chapter where she sent the text photo, the person responding didn't seem to realize Conan was on the case until she sent the picture -- and I would think Akai, of all people, would expect Conan to be there. On the other hand, I'm not sure where a third brother would fit in to our existing cast list, unless Aoyama's just making a space to introduce an additional character later (which seems odd, since he usually introduces a character before revealing their connection to everyone else).

And now for a crazy left-field fan theory that just occurred to me : Maybe Sera's other brother is Anokata, and the reason Shuu swore to bring down the organization is because he wants to undo the damage his evil older brother has done. By asking for advice on cases, Sera is unwittingly feeding him information about Conan. (Yeah, I know, it falls apart after about ten seconds' reasoning, since for starters I doubt Moroboshi Dai would have made it into the BO, but it would be a fun twist.)

Gin – only one I can come up with who can kill Bourbon without endangering the status quo; but how we get from where we are to Gin having a reason to kill Bourbon (without the aforementioned unlikely defection) is beyond me

I could see it if Amuro is set up, and Gin is convinced he's a security risk. Kir and Akai working together could frame him for an information leak. But I don't really see the story going that way. Personally, I'm very curious what Amuro's connection to Date was, and if that could get him killed... I think there could be some very interesting developments there. Amuro definitely has his own agenda apart from the BO.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

But, with the other points, I really am not sure about this second brother... I have the feeling it's Subaru and Sera's using a half-truth to avoid revealing that Shuichi's alive. This whole thing came out of left field. Or Gosho is trolling again. If the second brother is another character, I am under the impression he's not going to be Black Org. unless the twist is that Amuro is the second brother. (Which would incidentally mean Subaru/Shuichi is lying about his age.)

I thought we already knew Subaru was lying about his age? It's been a while since I read the chapter, but didn't Subaru introduce himself as a grad student in his early '20s? Shuuichi is older (I want to say 28, but I can't remember where I got that number).

Akai's official age has never been revealed. He may be lying as Subaru about it, or he might not. Characters in DC tend to be pretty young for their professional level overall though. Sherry worked for the BO at 13, Yukiko became nationally famous in high school and quit soon after she got out. Jodie became a "star" investigator at 28.

[AVA]

I thought we already knew Subaru was lying about his age? It's been a while since I read the chapter, but didn't Subaru introduce himself as a grad student in his early '20s? Shuuichi is older (I want to say 28, but I can't remember where I got that number).

Akai's official age has never been revealed. He may be lying as Subaru about it, or he might not. Characters in DC tend to be pretty young for their professional level overall though. Sherry worked for the BO at 13, Yukiko became nationally famous in high school and quit soon after she got out. Jodie became a "star" investigator at 28.

True -- but you have to be at least 23 to join the FBI. Added to the five years Shuuichi spent undercover with the BO, that would put him at a minimum age of 28 (probably older, since he had a reputation with the FBI before he went undercover). Before that he was also romantically involved with Jodie, whom we know is at least 28, so I think it's safe to assume he's at least in his late 20s. (Of course, given the way time passes -- or doesn't -- in the Conanverse, you can't really assume anything from a seemingly logical deduction like real-world rules about working for the FBI.) ^_^

Also, apparently I was wrong about Okiya Subaru's introduction. The DCW wiki has his age listed at 27, which is much closer to what Akai's age should be. So if he is lying, it's only by a couple of years.

[dcfan01]

I thought we already knew Subaru was lying about his age? It's been a while since I read the chapter, but didn't Subaru introduce himself as a grad student in his early '20s? Shuuichi is older (I want to say 28, but I can't remember where I got that number).

Akai's official age has never been revealed. He may be lying as Subaru about it, or he might not. Characters in DC tend to be pretty young for their professional level overall though. Sherry worked for the BO at 13, Yukiko became nationally famous in high school and quit soon after she got out. Jodie became a "star" investigator at 28.

True -- but you have to be at least 23 to join the FBI. Added to the five years Shuuichi spent undercover with the BO, that would put him at a minimum age of 28 (probably older, since he had a reputation with the FBI before he went undercover). Before that he was also romantically involved with Jodie, whom we know is at least 28, so I think it's safe to assume he's at least in his late 20s. (Of course, given the way time passes -- or doesn't -- in the Conanverse, you can't really assume anything from a seemingly logical deduction like real-world rules about working for the FBI.) ^_^

Also, apparently I was wrong about Okiya Subaru's introduction. The DCW wiki has his age listed at 27, which is much closer to what Akai's age should be. So if he is lying, it's only by a couple of years.

There is a thing about birthdays.. if I told you that I was born in 1900, you would not be able to tell whether I'm 112 or 113 (You would clearly be able to tell that I'm lying though ).
Following the same logic, Akai could have joined the FBI at the age of 23, then, after a few completed missions, he could have been assigned the mission of undercover spy in the BO (he was japanese, so he was the ideal candidate) and after spending 3 years undercover, and 2 other years on his own, he might still be 27, about to turn 28..

[AVA]

There is a thing about birthdays.. if I told you that I was born in 1900, you would not be able to tell whether I'm 112 or 113 (You would clearly be able to tell that I'm lying though ).

Not necessarily... The anonymity of the internet means I can't tell a thing about your real age. I could make assumptions based on my observations of your behavior, but for all I know you really could be that old!

Related to this discussion, one of the things that is difficult for me to track in terms of the BO plot development is the inconsistent passage of time in DC. As I recall, during one of the FBI's first major cases (I think the Kir/hospital incident?), it was stated that it had been only 6 months since Miyano Akemi had died and Akai had been ousted from the BO, yet to me it seemed a lot more time had passed in the canon storyline since that very early case (probably because of the years of manga publication in real time). Is there a compiled timeline anywhere showing the order and time frame of major plot events in the manga?

Alternately, has anyone ever counted up how many in-story days have passed since Shinichi was drugged and became Conan? I think it would be an interesting project to figure out how much time has ACTUALLY passed in the 18 years the series has been running (and especially challenging for the anime, which tends to follow the seasons and show multiple instances of Christmas, New Year's and other holidays. Though at least those aren't canon).

[Shinichi Edogawa]

I think that it's possible that shinichi met sera during the golden apple case, sera lived in america with akai, so when Gosho will write the Shinichi/Sera encounter, he can focus again about Sharon and the quarrel between her and Itakura. Bourbon arc is like the second part of the Vermouth Arc. They are similar, ran and shinichi met before a mysterious character (akai/sera), a member of the organisation is close to them (vermouth/bourbon) and there was candidate for the identity of that black organisation member related to conan (jodie/sera-okyia).

And probably at the end of the arc, like vermouth, bourbon will discover the truth about conan and will protect him because he made a promise with vermouth about that.

[TML]

There is a thing about birthdays.. if I told you that I was born in 1900, you would not be able to tell whether I'm 112 or 113 (You would clearly be able to tell that I'm lying though ).

Not necessarily... The anonymity of the internet means I can't tell a thing about your real age. I could make assumptions based on my observations of your behavior, but for all I know you really could be that old!

Related to this discussion, one of the things that is difficult for me to track in terms of the BO plot development is the inconsistent passage of time in DC. As I recall, during one of the FBI's first major cases (I think the Kir/hospital incident?), it was stated that it had been only 6 months since Miyano Akemi had died and Akai had been ousted from the BO, yet to me it seemed a lot more time had passed in the canon storyline since that very early case (probably because of the years of manga publication in real time). Is there a compiled timeline anywhere showing the order and time frame of major plot events in the manga?

Alternately, has anyone ever counted up how many in-story days have passed since Shinichi was drugged and became Conan? I think it would be an interesting project to figure out how much time has ACTUALLY passed in the 18 years the series has been running (and especially challenging for the anime, which tends to follow the seasons and show multiple instances of Christmas, New Year's and other holidays. Though at least those aren't canon).

The reason why the characters' ages have stated relatively constant despite the passage of many years in real life has to do with a concept called "floating timeline" - and this concept is widely used in fiction. For example, in the US TV show "The Simpsons," two of the show's main characters have stayed in elementary school despite going through four different US Presidents - from Bush 41 to Obama. Also, the main characters in the book series "The Baby Sitters Club" have remained at the same grade levels in school every time they went back to school following the end of summer vacation.

[Shiromi]

My view... though I'm not as well versed as many here... is that the central figures of the story are Shiho Miyano and Vermouth, so they will be the keys to bringing the organization down.
Vermouth doesn't age normally, and that's likely got something to do with the organization's goals. Her hatred of Shiho maybe more than just love rivals, but because she was a specimen and had to undergo a lot of testing, first by Shiho's parents, then by Shiho.

They're both defecting to some degree. Vermouth may be concealing Haibara's and Conan's real identities because she doesn't want more people to go through what she did. In her plans for killing Sherry, they always involve outright killing her, not capturing her and letting the researchers take her apart. She also doesn't want Shinichi or Ran to be hurt by the organization because they saved her life, and she admires their idealism. There's something preventing her from full-on betraying the organization. She probably has something that Anokata holds over her to keep her in line, which may be another reason that Gin doesn't like or trust her.

Shiho, seeing as the organization was looking to sneakily get rid of her and her sister for a while and had it blow up in their faces, probably had been having doubts about the work she was doing for them for a while. Them trying to get rid of her, because she's poisoning the water so to speak, possibly making other researchers and members question what they've been doing, could signal the start of the inner, ideological crumbling of the organization. Like cult members spotting contradictions in their dogma and deconverting themselves, eroding the power base of the cult. When Gin finds her after she escaped, his primary concern was "who helped you get out?". Once one person leaves, more and more follow. Probably the biggest blow to the organization would be if Shiho revealed to them that she'd escaped, survived, and built a happy life for herself outside the organization. Her "death" is probably keeping more people from defecting - but just for now. There already is distrust between the sections of the organization, so a little more shaking and it'll all fall apart.

Anyways, that's my rambles on it.

[S.Vineyard]

Well, for the near future we can asume this:

- The Sera Arc will be concluded
- A Subaru/Amuro Confrontation
- No Vermouth trying to kill Ai again. (She only got the Chance because Ai went public as Shiho.)
- Another new BO mem´ber, because Gosho annouced it.

And my personal wish for the 20th anniversary:

- A change in the Conan/Shinichi/Ran Status quo.

[magnolia88]

The reason why Gosho focusing into Sera's family business. And I wont be surprised if they related with Black Org deeply more than people ever expected.

[doitsu]

Oh, where to begin:

The Bourbon/Sera/Okiya plot - will hopefully be somewhat resolved within the next 30 files. It was painfully slow to get going but gathered some significant steam over the course of the last 100 files and both Amuro's and Sera's introduction hurried the plot along a fair bit as every case felt like included at least some tidbits of relevant information rather than Kogoro, Ran and Conan driving out to Gunma and dealing with Kappas and Yamamura. *eyeroll*


If we're talking about the next BO case - in theory I'd say it's more likely that we'll get another 'Silent Clash' but considering the amount of loose ties hanging around (and still being introduced, hello imoto-chan outside the domain) there'll probably at least be the expected Okiya/Akai-Amuro/Bourbon confrontation with Sera in the middle somewhere. Or maybe even a similar soft set-up along the lines of "Online Client/Detective's Noctures" with a "Mystery Train" 20 files later on.

Before that I wouldn't be entirely shocked to see maybe Eisuke but definitely Hidemi at least return into the realms of relevance for a little while. Hidemi's played a massive part in the set-up of the entire Bourbon plot so it'd be only fitting if she got involved in the closure of it. And Eisuke vs Sera could provide both comic relief and a speed up of Sera's deductions if the surname rings a bell with her.

As to those who think there's another Shinichi-Ran suspicion case akin to the Desperate Revival arc on the way - I'd hold my horses. If anything (or rather 781-786 is to be believed) it'll be something along the lines of Ran confessing to Shinichi next time he's back I reckon - and I kinda hope that's left for after the closure of the Bourbon arc.

And as stated previously, I hope Gosho keeps up his work of rediscovering the Jodie (who seems to be able to deduct on-goings efficiently) he wrote in the Vermouth arc rather than the gullible 'undercover operations' mess she's been afterwards. The fact that she hasn't been able to add 2 + 2 with regards to Conan having multiple phones and Rikumichi's corpse and car seemingly vanishing into thin air is genuinely one of the more annoying and sloppy plot and characterholes in the entire series. Great character if he gets her right - infuriating before, during and after most of the Clash of Red and Black arc.

[Patrick]

I personally couldn't say much about where the plot is going (Sera's 2nd brother identity, Amuro's promise etc), I'd rather leave that to pros like Chekhov so they can blow our minds away lol. I've been reading this topic and got me thinking though, so I wanted to note a few things, see if it helps.

Amuro is getting too close to conan and his inner-circle, and conan isn't doing anything to prevent it..

I think we have to consider that Conan’s mind is usually one step ahead of ours, the readers. So it’s safe to say that if we’ve been capable of realizing the threats, so was he, and thus he's probably taking care of it as we speak. Also, remember Conan is always thinking about keeping safe (or not involving) those who surround him (Ran, DB, Haibara), so if he were to take action against Amuro’s threat my guess is it would be a carefully thought plan which is still in the process. And I think that’s the reason it seems to us he isn’t doing anything. He probably is, as always, but we can’t see it. A good example of this is any of the previous “Conan Vs BO” arcs we’ve had:
•In the Vermouth arc we didn’t see any previous hint to the planning of “Heiji plays Shinichi-Conan plays Haibara-Yukiko’s involvement in team up with conan Vs the BO” move. Hell, even Jodie who intended to ambush Vermouth couldn’t have possibly thought Ai was indeed Conan in disguise.
•In the Black Vs Red arc we didn’t see any previous hint to the planning of “Fake Akais’ death so the BO backs off and Kir’s position isn’t compromised” (Checkhov deduced that later but there’s no way we could have anticipated that BEFORE it happened)
•In the Mystery Train case we didn’t see any previous hint to Yukiko’s involvement once more and even less about her teaming up with Okiya.

My point is, Conan always keeps everybody (including us) in the dark except for two or three powerful allies with whom he crafts all these brilliant strategies (if I had to name them I would say Heiji, Akai, Yukiko and Agasa, although the professor's involvement works in a different way). So, rather than being caught off guard, I think there’s probably gonna be some kind of Conan-Amuro clash, similar to that of Vermouth’s arc, where Conan’s gonna get some leverage and make Amuro back off (since Amuro being fooled is out of the question).

My reasoning leaves me only with him getting killed, which is a problematic assumption itself due to the lack of possible killers. Personally I only see five people and for each of them a strong counter argument can be made...

Here’s my thoughts about the characters you suggest. Not to counter argument or anything, just saying a few things I believe we should consider concerning these characters:

•Kir - I think we often forget a very important fact when we speak about Kir: She’s CIA. Furthermore, her own father killed himself for the sake of the mission. For me this is key to everything she does and sometimes people take that for granted. I totally bought Akai’s death when I saw it, because if that’s what it took for Kir to continue Ethan’s mission, she wouldn’t hesitate a second (as she herself stated, her priorities are clear). I like to believe I’ve watched enough films and TV shows about the CIA to believe CIA’s agenda beats FBI’s agenda hands down. On a sidenote, they were investigating the BO years ahead the FBI started. So if Gosho brought up the CIA to this show there must be a hell of a reason and Kir is going to be crucial in bringing them down.
•Akai – (off topic) Speaking of the CIA, am I the only one who thinks Akai is too pro for a mere FBI agent? He strikes me more of an elite field agent from the CIA. (on topic) That being said, I also think he has it in him to take this kind of action against Amuro, but I agree his disguise could be compromised. Conan and him planned his staged death too well to risk it now.
•Gin – An important aspect to consider about the “Gin killing Amuro” scenario is that Gin already restrained himself when he was suspicious of Kir and Vermouth. And they clearly gave him stronger reasons to pull the trigger than Amuro has thus far. Also, Amuro and Vermouth have Anokata’s sympathy which seems to deem them untouchable by Gin/Chianti etc.
•Haibara – Personally I rule Ai out of this because, as much as she hates the BO, I consider her fear is too great for her to take close action. She has proven reckless on several occasions when the BO is around and usually considered giving up on the fight and just surrender to her fate, as Conan would put it. I personally think she’s very unstable to cause any damage to the BO by herself.
•Vermouth – Not much to add, I suppose we’ll just have to find out about that promise she made with Amuro.

I get the feeling Amuro already knows […]

I think the mere fact that he says “terrifying man” and not “kid” is proof enough he’s figured out who Conan is. If anything, he might be searching for conclusive evidence or also planning ahead for a future confrontation.

And by the way... you showered us with questions, Chekhov, but didn't grace us with your predictions!

Totally agree!!! tell us what you think please! (assuming you haven’t posted it yet somewhere else).

Amuro and Wataru Date connection. Probably if there's any reason why he will go to the "good side" is because this connection

Totally agree with this. As I stated before, I believe Gosho does everything for a reason, so Date’s connection with Amuro must become relevant at some point, otherwise the case would just have been presented as some Takagi’s acquaintance death and not related to Amuro.

And my personal wish for the 20th anniversary:
- A change in the Conan/Shinichi/Ran Status quo.

Now that would be really something!! Let’s think about it:
I think Gosho mentioned something about finishing the series before reaching Vol. 100 or thereabouts. From what I see, way too many important characters are being introduced in a relatively short time span. My reading of this is Gosho is bringing to scene all the players for the final sprint of DC. This would also mean a dramatic turn of events with Ran and Conan could take place. I personally would love “Ran finding out about Shinichi” to be the trigger of Conan bringing down the BO once and for all, but that may be too much hoping since, despite Ran’s several suspicions, she’s been later “manipulated” by Shinichi to remain trusting again for a hundred or more cases.

Here comes the totally insane-unlikely trolling I've come up with:
Speaking of 20th anniversaries what if Gosho’s plans are to prolong the series to the 25th anniversary? Think about it, what’s it called when two people have been married for 25 years? Silver-wedding. Wouldn’t it be a major trolling from Gosho to unleash the Silver bullet on the Silver anniversary of the series? I think it would be both painful (for the wait) and hysterical to make such a pun (Food for thought).


P.S. Lastly, thinking about Conan’s strong allies made me wonder why isn’t Yusaku more involved in the fight against the BO. He clearly has a brilliant mind, to the point that he outsmarts his son and figured out who the original Kaitou Kid was. I suppose Gosho chose Yukiko over Yusaku to be more involved due to the fact she’s an actress and could bring more of a practical hand to the game (Vermouth’s connection, disguises, etc). Still, I would love to see Yusaku help Conan defeat the BO in the series finale.