The dreaded double post: Apologies in advance. Here is a first stab at the complete solution to the case. There will no doubt be some holes so please critique. Also please pardon the spelling and grammar errors.
Suspect breakdowns. (despoilered for easier searching)
Tokubi Rokurou
Water Transportation: Tokubi Rokurou can make a little under a liter using the supplies for his watercolors. There are 16 of those 15 mL bottles.
16*15 mLs = 240mLs. There are 9 of the 60 mL large bottles.
9*60 mLs = 560 mLs + 240 mLs = 800 mLs. The 100 mL squirt bottle can hold water without emitting a stench. (Squirt bottles are often used in laboratories to hold ethanol or acetone which you can smell easily if they are free to vaporize - when stored in these bottles you can't smell them.)
100 mLs + 800 mLs = 900 mLs. The white container used to hold paint: remember the shoe had green stains on it, and the shoe wouldn't fit in the jar, so the paint solids must have been stored next to or perhaps inside the shoe while that container was being used to ferry water. I am going to guess the jar has about 75mLs of room.
75mLs + 900 mLs = 975 mLs total ≈ 1 liter.
Lack of Alibi: Tokubi Rokurou was sleeping at the time of the crime and thus doesn't have a strong alibi.
Motive: He cared about his student.
Suspicious behavior: Tokubi's extreme method of hitchhiking with Kogoro is worth noting. If he is the murderer, then Tokubi intended to ride in detective Mouri's car. The letter to Kogoro specified that he wished to meet in the early morning. I'm going to guess Kuchibashi Village is small so there would be few people traveling inbound early in the morning. Nohira Bousuke specifically mentioned almost no one comes to the ryokan these days. Therefore, Tokubi wouldn't accidentally pick the wrong car. His... extreme... method of signaling that he wants a ride would be to ensure he gets picked up. Tokubi wanted to visit the gravesite so he could fall in the river and Kogoro will verify the contents of his bag.
Tokubi cut off the conversation when Yamamura was describing what Tatsuhiko was wearing. This is suspicious because it seems like Tokubi is trying to keep Kogoro from realizing what Tatsuhiko was really doing down at the river.
Tokubi's squirt bottle was empty. Normally people using watercolors keep a supply of clean water on standby to thin the watercolor or wet the colored solids as needed to produce thicker or thinner colors. That's what his squirt bottle would be used for. After spending time adding solids to each of the now empty bottles and dissolving the colors, he may have forgotten to fill the squirt bottle before the body was discovered.
Additional details: The shoe had green stains on it. Since this was not the buried shoe, one must consider where it came from. Stains made from algae or similar 11 years ago wouldn't be green after all that time, nor would they be on the inside of the shoe. Paint solids stored inside the shoe would explain the origin of the colored stains easily.
Araiwa Kazuki
Water Transportation: Araiwa Kazuki has two 500 mL plastic drink bottles, one of which is still sealed, and a pillow that can be inflated with water. It would be hard to doctor a seal on a bottle, so it is likely that only one bottle was available for him to use. It is unlikely he prepared two sets of bottles. Araiwa probably removed everything from his bag at the creek based on the view inside his empty bag after he fell in the creek. He didn't go out and purchase identical bottles after falling in the creek and if the ryokon sold identical bottled drinks, we would have been given this information. The inflatable pillow could have held more than enough stinky pond water, but as Ran noted it was flat at the river. Also, if Araiwa used the pillow, I would imagine he would be less forward and cheerful about telling the police all about it. If Araiwa were transporting Hell's Pond water, he could only bring at most 500 mLs before the time they arrived at the ryokon. If Araiwa wanted to get more, he would have needed to make a second trip after dark. Of the suspects, only Nohira was noted to have left after Kogoro arrived. Araiwa, who could not have had a liter of Hell's Pond water on him when he arrived at the Ryokon, could not have brought any more, so unless he diluted 500 mL, he is ruled out as a suspect.
Lack of Alibi: Araiwa Katsuki was asleep and then got up and took a bath but was the only one in there. (presumably he is talking about a hot spring or something like that, since no else should have been sharing his room's personal bath…) He doesn't have a strong alibi.
Motive: He cared about his classmate.
Suspicious behavior: He fell in the river, along with Tokubi. It is possible he intended for Kogoro to verify the contents of his bag; however, unless he is working with Tokubi, he couldn't have predicted Kogoro would visit the grave site. I suppose he could have waited around at the gravesite until Kogoro gathered enough information to investigate and visited, but the father who has been watching over the river may have noticed him and commented about how he had been down there for a while.
Nohira Bousuke
Water Transportation: Nohira Bousuke had a bunch of film containers which as Kogoro noted could collectively be used to transport a lot of water.
Lack of Alibi: Nohira Bousuke was on the phone with his editor going "back and forth."