Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culprit!

Forum reserved for discussing specific points of the story—mostly from the manga. Be warned, these discussions will be current with the manga and will spoil many plot lines for anime-centric fans.

Who is the murderer in the RECENT death of Numayama Banzou?

Tokubi Rokurou
18
39%
Araiwa Kazuki (21): Tatsuhiko's classmate whose nose is the same as Agasa's
10
22%
Nohira Bousuke (45): guy being eaten by his own afro
3
7%
Numayama Banzou (51): Tatsuhiko's father and corpse - committed suicide
0
No votes
The hassled innkeeper
0
No votes
The glasses-wearing employee who found the body
0
No votes
It was an accident: Numayama tripped on the rocks, was knocked out, and drowned
0
No votes
A real kappa who wasn't given enough cucumbers
6
13%
Yamamura Misao with his shiny, shiny forehead
2
4%
Ran's a fake - she didn't scream when they found the body!
7
15%
 
Total votes: 46
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Chekhov MacGuffin
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Chekhov MacGuffin »

Abs. wrote: Introduction of tap water into the solution would affect the composition such that it wouldn't match the pond water.
How about creek water from outside the ryokon. Judging from the overview, it seems to run quite close, so it may be possible to sneak out without anyone noticing. Since it is the creek water that feeds into Hell's Pond, it could work... but now I'll need to figure out if any of the suspects had the opportunity to do so. Afro man obviously did, but what about the other too...
Oh wait! The rain, it rained! Any of the suspects could leave a bucket outside and collect almost distilled water that way. That would work and wouldn't require going outside!
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Misztina »

What i don't understand yet (among quite a few thing XD) is how was the culprit able to drown te guy. Kogoro's fantasy about that would suggest that the victim was knocked down, but, wouldn't the police said so? Or teh kid's shoe was on the floor, the victim saw that, wanted to pick it up, than bamm, head under water?

Btw. the policeman said that the water on the victim is like the pond's and teh creek can't be like the pond, because the pond was trashed all around and smally, or no?
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by caribou »

kirite wrote: Would a face mask make you look like a Kappa I wonder.    
I'm thinking along that line. I think the "kappa" that Ran saw was probably the journalist who was wearing a mask because of his cold. I think he's probably not researching ghost stories, but in fact the the boy's death from 11 years ago. I think he's probably the one who wrote the letter to Kogoro. :/

But I don't think he's the murderer. I actually have a feeling (though not much theory to back it up) that it's the CLASSMATE who is the main perpetrator, and the teacher is helping him:

- somehow I feel that the teacher purposely dragged him down with him when he fell in the river (maybe he noticed that the classmate's clothes were a little wet with pond water, so he made him fall into the river too to avoid suspicion/mask the smell).
- the classmate's change of clothes seems too much for only a one-night stay. Perhaps he has been around for a while, collecting the pond water?
- the teacher offered to paint a picture when Ran mentioned the kappa, as though to draw attention away from the actual murderer. (I guess this could also be because he's the main suspect, and he wanted to show that the liquid in his ink bottles was indeed paint.)

I like the idea that some of you all have suggested: that someone has been collecting the condensed form of the pond water for some time. That matches Conan's final thought ("packed in", "in a small form"). but how does he do it without anyone else noticing. the whole evaporation process takes a long time ... I think someone would notice large pans of smelly water being laid out in the sun. :S
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Schillok »

Well, if the theory of the concentrated hells pond water is correct the murderer would have planed in a advance, preparing it a few days before entering the pension. The teacher and the classmate lived in that region before, so it shouldn't have been too hard for them.

Beside, I think japans tap-water is relatively clean. Clean enough to be drunk from the tap at least. So it would only contain some salts (Na+, Ca++, Cl-, etc.) - which the hells pond probably contain as well. So in the end you would just have a slightly higher concentration of these salts in the water you used to drown the father. I don't think it would have been noticed. Especially since most tests only test for the presence of specific substances, not for their concentration.


But yeah, the question is why did the murderer drown the father? And why in that water?
Just so they would have an alibi? Or is it somehow related to the kids death? (Maybe he died in the pond and not in the river and it was the fathers fault, somehow.)
And yeah, the police didn't state any wounds on his head or drugs in his blood that would explain why he couldn't resist against being drowned in the bucket. None of the subjects look so strong that they could prevent him from knocking the bucket down while struggling with the murderer. Quite mysterious....
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by kirite »

There are two opposing sides to this Kappa thing.  The inn keeper wants people to forget it while the person who sent the letter and the journalist wants the kappa to be brought up again.  By murdering the inn keeper through "drowning" people might start talking about the superstition again.

However the culprit left the basin there for the police to find.  Could it be a mistake?  The culprit bothered to splash pond water on the victim to make an appearance of "drowning".
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by baka1412 »

Btw, what did conan notice from that squirt water bottle ?

At first, i though it was Yamamura rambling about alien that made him realize about the trick, but he seems to noticed something about the squirt bottle before that...
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Chekhov MacGuffin »

caribou wrote: I'm thinking along that line. I think the "kappa" that Ran saw was probably the journalist who was wearing a mask because of his cold. I think he's probably not researching ghost stories, but in fact the the boy's death from 11 years ago. I think he's probably the one who wrote the letter to Kogoro. :/
If it was the photographer wearing a mask, why would he run away when Ran screamed? He isn't doing anything wrong. I think the person in the creek was definitely dressed as the kappa. I think it might be the father, since he was worried about the reporter going out at night on the creek. It had rained earlier, so the creek may be up and the conditions treacherous. If the father patrols the creek to keep people from drowning as one of the other suspects commented, I would be surprised if he didn't go after the reporter. I take this back. There is a good possibility the reporter may be the Kappa given his backpack and his previous cold. also the father was not noted as leaving during the evening and the reporter may be investigating the death of Tatsuhiko and thus would want to avoid people snce he took the pains to come out a night.
caribou wrote: I like the idea that some of you all have suggested: that someone has been collecting the condensed form of the pond water for some time. That matches Conan's final thought ("packed in", "in a small form"). but how does he do it without anyone else noticing. the whole evaporation process takes a long time ... I think someone would notice large pans of smelly water being laid out in the sun. :S
You do it down at hell pond where everything is smelly and there is plenty of trash lying around anyway. When Kogoro picked up the teacher, he was stilll quite a ways downhill, perhaps that is near where hell pond was.
Schillok wrote: But yeah, the question is why did the murderer drown the father? And why in that water?
Just so they would have an alibi? Or is it somehow related to the kids death? (Maybe he died in the pond and not in the river and it was the fathers fault, somehow.)
And yeah, the police didn't state any wounds on his head or drugs in his blood that would explain why he couldn't resist against being drowned in the bucket. None of the subjects look so strong that they could prevent him from knocking the bucket down while struggling with the murderer. Quite mysterious....
No, the motive is definitely to get revenge. I suggested an idea in this post. As for how the guy managed to drown him in a bucket without making enough noise to rouse attention, maybe the culprit snuck up on him, or maybe the father was expecting someone to avenge his son and was passive about being drowned? Not a clue there.
baka1412 wrote: Btw, what did conan notice from that squirt water bottle ?
It was empty. Normally people using watercolors keep a supply of clean water on standby to thin the watercolor or wet the colored solids as needed to produce thicker or thinner colors. That's what that squirt bottle would be used for.
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on January 20th, 2010, 12:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by sstimson »

Ok I going to put some of my ideas here.

1) I believe that the bath is where the father was drowned. Think about it if the bucket was used, then to me it seems easy to get more water on the floor and drowning that way would make more noise.
2) I believe that a little and not the 100% pond water, in other words part of the 100ml bottle was put into the bath water so some of the pond water would be found in his lungs. what was left was added to the bucket. The bucket was likely use to drench the body and give a false clue to where the murder occurred.
3) I believe the 'Kappa was the dad. He might have dropped his water in the bad water and so had his son wade to try and find it. The son may have gotten tired and tried to leave the water before finding the watch, but the dad pushed the son back in and in the process the son might have hit his head on the stepping stones. The letter suggest that while the 'Kappa' (Dad) was believed to have caused the sons' death, it was someone else. I think it likely that some one else was the 'friend'. They might have seen the father push the son and looks like he killed him. But the son was not dead and after the scared Dad left the scene, this friend demanded something, but the son would not do where ever and so the friend killed him. The dad might have found out about this and so was killed as well. I am sure the Kappa Ran saw was the Dad.
4) The reason for the Kappa was likely to bring business to the area. After all all the Press reporting about the Kappa might have temporary made the area a tourist trap. Which is why I think the Reporter was not the killer, but might be next to get killed if he found out about the truth and tried to Blackmail the Kappa. It is likely the Innkeeper was in on this as it would help his business. That is why the Kappa had to make another appearance, the hope of getting more Press. If the Reported also saw the Dad being killed again another reason for him to be a possible victim of the Kappa. I think the Friend is the killer. Any other questions?
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Nyarl »

The innkeeper is probably not the kappa Ran saw. If he could slip out unnoticed then why couldn't the childhood friend slip out with the pillow? Ran probably saw the reporter. Don't know if he was in a kappa costume or just had his packs and mask on. I'd guess costume since he was facing a deadline and I don't remember seeing him with anything that could cover his head to make it look that way unintentionally (a bowl/plate implies intentional costume). An odd possibility is that Ran saw both, with the innkeeper saving the reporter (ie the hair hanging off the kappa's... rear is the reporter's hair, dangling because it's wet, the reporter slung over the innkeeper's shoulder... but the kappa's legs looked a bit skinny to be the innkeeper's).

Not sure whether the murder trick is simply diluting the paint after the murder to hide the bottles' use, or if he  had to concentrate the polluted muck, too. That we don't see watertight dry pigment containers probably implies that he was keeping the paint in some of the bottles already, which would in turn imply he didn't have quite enough non-paint filled containers to fill the bucket with only the polluted water, so I guess it's a combo of the two ideas.
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by caribou »

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
caribou wrote: I'm thinking along that line. I think the "kappa" that Ran saw was probably the journalist who was wearing a mask because of his cold. I think he's probably not researching ghost stories, but in fact the the boy's death from 11 years ago. I think he's probably the one who wrote the letter to Kogoro. :/
If it was the photographer wearing a mask, why would he run away when Ran screamed? He isn't doing anything wrong. I think the person in the creek was definitely dressed as the kappa. I think it might be the father, since he was worried about the reporter going out at night on the creek. It had rained earlier, so the creek may be up and the conditions treacherous. If the father patrols the creek to keep people from drowning as one of the other suspects commented, I would be surprised if he didn't go after the reporter.
That is plausible as well, but I still think it fits better if the reporter was the 'kappa'. Both him and Ran&Co were out at the same time so it fits the timeline, though I suppose any one of the other 3 could have slipped out as well, but that's not the facts that were presented to us. I think that perhaps he's up to something else which he doesn't want others to know. I feel a suspicious vibe from him (so many film canisters!) just not the murderer-suspicious type (sorry, I know my arguments are not that logical/factual).
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote: You do it down at hell pond where everything is smelly and there is plenty of trash lying around anyway. When Kogoro picked up the teacher, he was stilll quite a ways downhill, perhaps that is near where hell pond was.
I still think that is quite hard, since the father likes to keep watch over the whole river. Though I guess the murderer could have wisely chosen a time when the father is likely to still be asleep, so, that's a fair enough point...
Schillok wrote: And yeah, the police didn't state any wounds on his head or drugs in his blood that would explain why he couldn't resist against being drowned in the bucket. None of the subjects look so strong that they could prevent him from knocking the bucket down while struggling with the murderer. Quite mysterious....
Actually I think it's possible. you could suffocate someone with a pillow (well - or so i've seen in fiction, but isn't Conan a fiction world!) so I think this might work the same way. Plus both the teacher and the student are grown men. I think either of them could do it -- or what if both of them did it? That removes the problem significantly.
Nyarl wrote: An odd possibility is that Ran saw both, with the innkeeper saving the reporter (ie the hair hanging off the kappa's... rear is the reporter's hair, dangling because it's wet, the reporter slung over the innkeeper's shoulder... but the kappa's legs looked a bit skinny to be the innkeeper's).

Not sure whether the murder trick is simply diluting the paint after the murder to hide the bottles' use, or if he  had to concentrate the polluted muck, too.
That's a rather cool way of seeing it, though perhaps then they have no reason to hide from Ran & co, in fact since he was saving someone there was more reason to ask for more assistance.

am wondering about the paint too, especially with the hint of the empty squirt bottle as explained by Chekhov. my only problem with this theory is that it is so terribly impractical to collect the water in such tiny bottles, and if I were the murderer I just wouldn't do it (find a more convenient way)... but then again murderers in Conan world have been known to make use of terribly complex and troublesome tricks. :|
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Chekhov MacGuffin »

I was thinking how to sedate the innkeeper without leaving a forensic clue (aka sleeping pills or choking) and realized that the sneaking-up-behind-with-the-rag-of-chloroform trick would work (at least by DC rules anyway). Any small container could have been used to hold it and then that person later would have washed the chloroform down the sink.
caribou wrote: That is plausible as well, but I still think it fits better if the reporter was the 'kappa'. Both him and Ran&Co were out at the same time so it fits the timeline, though I suppose any one of the other 3 could have slipped out as well, but that's not the facts that were presented to us. I think that perhaps he's up to something else which he doesn't want others to know. I feel a suspicious vibe from him (so many film canisters!) just not the murderer-suspicious type (sorry, I know my arguments are not that logical/factual).
He could be photographing himself for the paper, but I would have thought they would have found a kappa costume in his bag if it was the reporter out on the creek that night. The reporter, unless he was the murderer, would have not expected his bag and room to be searched by police, so if he was playing dress-up, the costume should have been found in his things. He shouldn't feel the need to conceal it any more than stashing it in his stuff where the service people wouldn't look. I take this back. See above.  If you wanted to try to crack the reporter's alibi, he could have used his voice recorder to tape himself and then sneak out while pretending to speak. However, the conversation was noted as going "back and forth", it would be hard to fake it is there was a lot of dialogue going on.
caribou wrote: my only problem with this theory is that it is so terribly impractical to collect the water in such tiny bottles, and if I were the murderer I just wouldn't do it (find a more convenient way)... but then again murderers in Conan world have been known to make use of terribly complex and troublesome tricks. :|
I think the point of using tiny bottles was to alleviate suspicion. No one would suspect someone to carry water in that way and thus it protects the culprit from getting caught. (It's still a stupid idea though, making yourself a suspect.)
caribou wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote: You do it down at hell pond where everything is smelly and there is plenty of trash lying around anyway. When Kogoro picked up the teacher, he was stilll quite a ways downhill, perhaps that is near where hell pond was.
I still think that is quite hard, since the father likes to keep watch over the whole river. Though I guess the murderer could have wisely chosen a time when the father is likely to still be asleep, so, that's a fair enough point...
You can't see hell pond from the window based on the view in the first chapter. It was noted that its 10 km downstream.
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on January 20th, 2010, 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Chekhov MacGuffin »

The dreaded double post: Apologies in advance. Here is a first stab at the complete solution to the case. There will no doubt be some holes so please critique. Also please pardon the spelling and grammar errors.

Suspect breakdowns. (despoilered for easier searching)
Tokubi Rokurou
ImageWater Transportation: Tokubi Rokurou can make a little under a liter using the supplies for his watercolors. There are 16 of those 15 mL bottles. 16*15 mLs = 240mLs. There are 9 of the 60 mL large bottles. 9*60 mLs = 560 mLs + 240 mLs = 800 mLs. The 100 mL squirt bottle can hold water without emitting a stench. (Squirt bottles are often used in laboratories to hold ethanol or acetone which you can smell easily if they are free to vaporize - when stored in these bottles you can't smell them.) 100 mLs + 800 mLs = 900 mLs. The white container used to hold paint: remember the shoe had green stains on it, and the shoe wouldn't fit in the jar, so the paint solids must have been stored next to or perhaps inside the shoe while that container was being used to ferry water. I am going to guess the jar has about 75mLs of room. 75mLs + 900 mLs = 975 mLs total ≈ 1 liter.  
ImageLack of Alibi: Tokubi Rokurou was sleeping at the time of the crime and thus doesn't have a strong alibi.
ImageMotive: He cared about his student.
Suspicious behavior: Tokubi's extreme method of hitchhiking with Kogoro is worth noting. If he is the murderer, then Tokubi intended to ride in detective Mouri's car. The letter to Kogoro specified that he wished to meet in the early morning. I'm going to guess Kuchibashi Village is small so there would be few people traveling inbound early in the morning. Nohira Bousuke specifically mentioned almost no one comes to the ryokan these days. Therefore, Tokubi wouldn't accidentally pick the wrong car. His... extreme... method of signaling that he wants a ride would be to ensure he gets picked up. Tokubi wanted to visit the gravesite so he could fall in the river and Kogoro will verify the contents of his bag.
Tokubi cut off the conversation when Yamamura was describing what Tatsuhiko was wearing. This is suspicious because it seems like Tokubi is trying to keep Kogoro from realizing what Tatsuhiko was really doing down at the river.
Tokubi's squirt bottle was empty. Normally people using watercolors keep a supply of clean water on standby to thin the watercolor or wet the colored solids as needed to produce thicker or thinner colors. That's what his squirt bottle would be used for. After spending time adding solids to each of the now empty bottles and dissolving the colors, he may have forgotten to fill the squirt bottle before the body was discovered.
Additional details: The shoe had green stains on it. Since this was not the buried shoe, one must consider where it came from. Stains made from algae or similar 11 years ago wouldn't be green after all that time, nor would they be on the inside of the shoe. Paint solids stored inside the shoe would explain the origin of the colored stains easily.

Araiwa Kazuki
ImageWater Transportation: Araiwa Kazuki has two 500 mL plastic drink bottles, one of which is still sealed, and a pillow that can be inflated with water. It would be hard to doctor a seal on a bottle, so it is likely that only one bottle was available for him to use. It is unlikely he prepared two sets of bottles. Araiwa probably removed everything from his bag at the creek based on the view inside his empty bag after he fell in the creek. He didn't go out and purchase identical bottles after falling in the creek and if the ryokon sold identical bottled drinks, we would have been given this information. The inflatable pillow could have held more than enough stinky pond water, but as Ran noted it was flat at the river. Also, if Araiwa used the pillow, I would imagine he would be less forward and cheerful about telling the police all about it.  If Araiwa were transporting Hell's Pond water, he could only bring at most 500 mLs before the time they arrived at the ryokon. If Araiwa wanted to get more, he would have needed to make a second trip after dark. Of the suspects, only Nohira was noted to have left after Kogoro arrived. Araiwa, who could not have had a liter of Hell's Pond water on him when he arrived at the Ryokon, could not have brought any more, so unless he diluted 500 mL, he is ruled out as a suspect.
ImageLack of Alibi: Araiwa Katsuki was asleep and then got up and took a bath but was the only one in there. (presumably he is talking about a hot spring or something like that, since no else should have been sharing his room's personal bath…) He doesn't have a strong alibi.
ImageMotive: He cared about his classmate.
Suspicious behavior: He fell in the river, along with Tokubi. It is possible he intended for Kogoro to verify the contents of his bag; however, unless he is working with Tokubi, he couldn't have predicted Kogoro would visit the grave site. I suppose he could have waited around at the gravesite until Kogoro gathered enough information to investigate and visited, but the father who has been watching over the river may have noticed him and commented about how he had been down there for a while.

Nohira Bousuke
ImageWater Transportation: Nohira Bousuke had a bunch of film containers which as Kogoro noted could collectively be used to transport a lot of water.
ImageLack of Alibi: Nohira Bousuke was on the phone with his editor going "back and forth."
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on June 15th, 2013, 5:13 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culprit!

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[quote="Chekhov MacGuffin"]
Spoiler:
The “kappaâ€
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by Chekhov MacGuffin »

caribou wrote: ah yes! this is what I meant, though I didn't analyse it with as much detail. It wasn't anyone dressing up as a kappa, it was just the journalist who appeared like a kappa.
I feel kind of stupid about not thinking about it hard enough in the first place and jumping to conclusions. I still could be wrong....
caribou wrote: I have just one issue: why is it assumed that the writer of the letter to Kogorou = the murderer? At the outset it makes sense, but when I think about it it's a little weird. The writer of the letter wanted to clear the kappa's name, so he wanted everyone to know the real reason behind Tatsuhiko's death. But the murderer killed the father, and attempted to conceal the crime. Very likely he was hoping everyone would just go along thinking it's another deed by the kappa, creepy creepy, etc. It brings everyone nowhere nearer to finding out the truth.
If the murderer is Tokubi, he needed to control the time Kogoro arrived so he could get him to validate what was in his bag before reaching the Ryokon where it could be assumed he could have hid the water and thus destroy any potential alibi gained by using lots of small bottles cleverly.
As for why he would try to hide the child's story, I do not know. I mean, why invite a renowned detective in the first place to your murder case? Perhaps he intends to be caught and for the true story to get out? I doubt that's it or he wouldn't have gone through the work of coming up with a clever trick. We'll find out next chapter I guess.
caribou wrote: I don't think there was a dying message though. i doubt he would have foreseen that his death was coming when he was assigning the rooms to the guests.
I thought he might of made a hand gesture or something to indicate the room the culprit is staying in. I thought maybe some japanese word for fist or something like that would be homophonous with a room name, but it doesn't seem to be so.
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Re: Water Demon Drowning Case (719-721?): Vote for the culpr

Post by featherfire520 »

Wow, excellent ideas! I like the theory about the kappa being the journalist, it makes a lot of sense. I never would have thought of that on my own! This thread makes me feel very incompetent at solving the cases O_O
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