Discussion Thread: Detective Conan Files 828-830

[El Huesudo II]

Spoiler: Long post

First That Information is freeable availible. If Vermouth says something like " I sorry I promised a friend I would not tell where I learned to do this. Then he might go and capture Heiji and ask about who did his double disguise. He might ask Hollywood who taught the movie greats how to disguise. He might even ask Yukiko herself where she learned the trick.

You made a statement that is simply not true. He might hear how KID appeared as someone else.  Vermouth might say that "Only me." But it would be clear she is lying under further investigation. All it would take is hearing or reading about how great Yukiko Movie disquises were. Or someone asking Who will KID appear as next. (Think about this. The Head Inspector goes around pinching cheeks to see it they're real. That will get out) And then If Vermouth did lie, and Bourbon found out about it, what then?

Your statement about "Why would she answer that? Because any other answer would compromise her plans and her cover. Mentioning Yukiko involves Shinichi, and Vermouth is protecting Shinichi. Mentioning Kid implies Haibara is alive, and that puts Conan and the Mouris in danger, and Vermouth is protecting them." Might be true, but as I just showed he could easily learn the truth.

And as for this part "And you keep assuming Bourbon will find the Sherry masks. It's already unlikely that he'll even find one of them. I mean, where the hell did Kid's one land? And what did Vermouth do with Yukiko's? Who the hell knows. And clearly not Bourbon"

Well one thing you should know if you read a lot of mysteries, is that clues that the bad guys was forced to leave and then hide have a very bad case of showing up. It is almost a certainly that mask will show up. The only way it would not is for Conan, his mother, or other types to find that mask and they make it disappear. Currently the story is not suggesting that. Which means a very important piece of evidence for the BO is just sitting out somewhere waiting to be found, and like I said earlier these kind of things have a very bad habit of showing up at the worst possible time. It will happen. Wait and see.

As for question #2, I doubt vermouth tossed that mask off the train, and that means she more likely has it with her. Again I agree with you on her trying to protect, and for that reason I do believe she would not just create another needle to show up. If she has not done already and if she can, then by now that mask no longer exist. That is of course if she can indeed safety destroy the mask. A nice possible plot trick might make that impossible and thus she playing a game of trying to keep that mask hidden, and it becomes more fun as now there are two mask wait to be found by the wrong people.

If you do not mind TvTropes, they kinda have what I am suggesting under "Did not see that coming" in Category #4 Unknown Knowns: It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given person, event, or variable is present... but doesn't see how it could possibly impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to dismiss it or mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot, and otherwise ignore the sword overhead while whittling at the rope holding it there

Your theory still relies on unlikely events.

Bourbon doesn't suspect, and has no reason at all to suspect, that Sherry is still alive. Vermouth wanted her dead, and she wanted her dead REALLY BAD. To claim she's dead when she really isn't would come off as uncharacteristic of her, and that's what she's relying on to keep her lie under cover. Bourbon also has no reason to suspect Vermouth could be lying, as she's been very helpful in every step of the way save for wanting to blow Sherry up with C4. And she's also That Man's right hand woman and the one he trusts the most. Yep, no reason to mistrust her here. And even if he did mistrust her, it's not really his business, and he wouldn't even care, his real target is and has always been Akai.

Bourbon doesn't suspect, and has no reason at all to suspect, that Sherry was someone in disguise. His cover was (apparently) perfect, there was (apparently) no way anyone could know they were on the train, and there was (apparently) no way anyone could survive the cargo hold explosion. The only thing he could suspect is that whoever hacked Kogoro's laptop knew that someone was gonna search for Sherry on the train, who later showed up (Akai? Or someone in disguise as Akai, as he had done before? He's unable to know as of now!). His suspicions will fall on HIM/HER and him/her only.

Bourbon also doesn't suspect, and also has no reason at all to suspect, that Kid was involved. Why would he? Kid's MO involves jewels. He rarely pulls off any other stunts, and more often than not those other stunts go unnoticed by everyone. Kid also rarely works with others. Also, Kid hadn't sent a message yet, so his presence in the train was uncertain.

The mask Kid disposed of flew off into the damn mountains. It flew off. Into the goddamned mountains. There's no way in hell it'll resurface, it would be a terrible move story-wise. Also, if Aoyama-sensei intended to make the mask resurface, he'd have hinted at it - showing where it landed, having someone catching it, just giving it a few more panels of attention. This didn't happen.

Not to mention: Bourbon has moved on to something else. He's now interested in investigating Conan, it's clear he doesn't care about what happened at the train anymore. If anything, the one who has a chance to find the mask would be Sera, as she's visibly interested in both Haibara and Scar Akai.

[Puto]

Also, Kid ripped the mask off his face. It should be torn and pretty much unrecognisable after that.

[red.orchid]

Spoiler:

I bet it's Kaitou Kid sending message to Ran, telling her to stay away from carpet in order not to get her involved.

Why Kaitou Kid know Ran's phone number, either the cellphone borrowed from Conan back to Bell Tree Express had not return yet or got Ran's phone number from that cellphone.

Spoiler:

Now why does he care if she gets involved or not?  :o Also, if she gets a message of the kind, she would have no reason to do what an anonymous told her to do 

[sstimson]

Writers do it all the Time. A Sherry Mask is dropped. You are again like I said (see the bold)

If you do not mind TvTropes, they kinda have what I am suggesting under "Did not see that coming" in Category #4 Unknown Knowns: It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given person, event, or variable is present... but doesn't see how it could possibly impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to dismiss it or mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot, and otherwise ignore the sword overhead while whittling at the rope holding it there

Please do not get any blood on the carpet when that sword falls. And try to be more like the A tea Party Guest who " tried to believe three impossible things before breakfast" If the PM and the tape can come back, watch the mask return as well.

Also to those who say that the mask will not be recognizable this picture

Spoiler: Lower left

note that from neck up looks fine to me.

Think of it like this: There is both a gun and a child in a house. All it will take is one moment of not locking the gun cabinet and the child will get into it. It is never of question of could it happen, but when will it happen.

If need be I find examples where this kind of thing happens and while I seen it happen a lot even in DC, I need to remember where they are.
Most of the time, they become the killer Achilles Heel, but there is no reason to think it does not work the other way.

As for the impossible happening, Three: The Star Wars series ( Vadar in the end on the good side, the destruction of the death star; LOTR the ring quest, the Wizard coming back from death) in DC Heiji being rescued by a very convenient fishing boat)

[Kor]

As for the impossible happening, Three: The Star Wars series ( Vadar in the end on the good side, the destruction of the death star; LOTR the ring quest, the Wizard coming back from death) in DC Heiji being rescued by a very convenient fishing boat)

I don't really understand what you're trying to say here.

[El Huesudo II]

Writers do it all the Time. A Sherry Mask is dropped. You are again like I said (see the bold)

If you do not mind TvTropes, they kinda have what I am suggesting under "Did not see that coming" in Category #4 Unknown Knowns: It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given person, event, or variable is present... but doesn't see how it could possibly impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to dismiss it or mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot, and otherwise ignore the sword overhead while whittling at the rope holding it there

Please do not get any blood on the carpet when that sword falls. And try to be more like the A tea Party Guest who " tried to believe three impossible things before breakfast" If the PM and the tape can come back, watch the mask return as well.

Also to those who say that the mask will not be recognizable this picture

Spoiler: Lower left

note that from neck up looks fine to me.

Think of it like this: There is both a gun and a child in a house. All it will take is one moment of not locking the gun cabinet and the child will get into it. It is never of question of could it happen, but when will it happen.

If need be I find examples where this kind of thing happens and while I seen it happen a lot even in DC, I need to remember where they are.
Most of the time, they become the killer Achilles Heel, but there is no reason to think it does not work the other way.

As for the impossible happening, Three: The Star Wars series ( Vadar in the end on the good side, the destruction of the death star; LOTR the ring quest, the Wizard coming back from death) in DC Heiji being rescued by a very convenient fishing boat)

The mask resurfacing would be a terrible move story-wise. It would feel much like an asspull of sorts.

Why? Because the mask isn't something that has any reason to resurface, or any purpose to fulfill through resurfacing.

Spoiler: 828 spoilers?

Only 2 characters are interested in what happened in the train right now, and only 1 of them has any interest in Haibara, and only the other one has any interest in Kid. Those 2 persons are Sera and Nakamori. None of them is Amuro.

Amuro moved on. He's over the train thing. Kaput. C'est fini. Back to Akai. And hell, even if Amuro was still interested in the train thing, he has absolutely no way of even catching a glimpse at the true facts of the case. None at all.

You keep talking as if he actually suspected that something about Sherry's death didn't fit, even though there's no indication that he thinks so (or that he cares); and going from there you assume that he's gonna point his finger at Kid, even though Kid wouldn't normally fit in the case in any way. It's a circle:

a) Amuro has no base or reason to suspect Kid, so he wouldn't think he needs any evidence to support that.
b) Because he wouldn't think he needs any evidence to support that, he wouldn't go looking for said evidence.
c) Because he wouldn't go looking for said evidence, he wouldn't find said evidence, of course.
d) Even if he found said evidence, he wouldn't be able to link it to Kid.
e) He wouldn't be able to link it to Kid because he has no base or reason to suspect Kid.

What Conan pulled at the train was a variation of the classic Strangers on a Train trick. However, instead of Conan and Kid exchanging criminal plans, Conan simply covered up that Kid was making plans for a future crime by asking him to commit a "crime" in return. Why did he do this? Because Kid couldn't be traced back to Conan. (Hell, they're not even strangers. The only thing that remains from Strangers on a Train is that they made a transaction with the purpose of messing with how the case could be deduced... ...and that they were on a train. LOL)


I'll finish this post with this: I can't predict what's gonna happen in the future in Conan. That'd be impossible. However, I do predict that if Sherry's death is ever suspected of being faked:

1.- The whole thing will be handled in a much more elegant and sensible way, and
2.- Kaito Kid won't be involved in it.

I don't really understand what you're trying to say here.

He's trying to say that I can't call some insane theory "impossible" because apparently the impossible always finds a way of happening in fiction.

However, he seems to ignore that everything that happens in fiction serves the purpose of making the story reach its intended end. His theories, apart from making no sense at all, ignore that fact. Okay, let's say that what he predicts becomes true. Then what? Where will the story move then? How does he expect the story to end?

...Oh, wait, I forgot that he's expecting the FBI to ignore the fact that they're a black ops team and that they're not in America and go The Expendables on the BO's ass or some shit. Nevermind.

[Kor]

I don't really understand what you're trying to say here.

He's trying to say that I can't call some insane theory "impossible" because apparently the impossible always finds a way of happening in fiction.

That's what I got. I just found it extremely weird to use the examples of Star Wars and LOTR since those two are science fiction and fantasy, so it's a weird choice to bring examples from those works in an argument about DC (not to mention that the stuff he mentioned weren't really impossible)

[sstimson]

As for the impossible happening, Three: The Star Wars series ( Vadar in the end on the good side, the destruction of the death star; LOTR the ring quest, the Wizard coming back from death) in DC Heiji being rescued by a very convenient fishing boat)

I don't really understand what you're trying to say here.

You Did ask

Some here are suggesting that certain improbably events like the finding Sherry's Mask can not happen and are therefore impossible.


A few Google examples of real life improbably also know as Black Swans


On the Occurrence of Improbable Events
Black Swan theory
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Another Real Live " Black Swan" Event - The Hunt for DB Cooper – The Resurgent Investigation into America’s only Unsolved Skyjacking; an overview, revised

Would you say that finding that $5,800 bundle is a Black swan?

I am saying Sherry Mask being found is similar. What I can see happening is this: A hiker off trail comes across the mask. They remember a video showing a person with a similar face, and decide to post their own video in an attempt to find the owner and learn more about that video they saw. And the Bo just happens to see this video.

There is a good argument that while you might not want to see this happen, it might (and as I see it will) happen. The forces of good think they are safe and Haibara can now have a normal life, and no longer need worry about the BO. Then they see this video. Let me ask you if that happened what would you do if you were Conan. Yes Bourbon appears to be looking into Conan, but let me ask you again, what would you do if you were bourbon and you saw this video? It as they say would be good theater. Instead of a possible boring story about how safe Haibara is, suddenly that dream dies and you get again suspense, and Haibara again retreating into her scared box. As for Gosho hinting about this, well remember that both the tape and the PM were left as teasers. Here we see a mask and with it know that if the Bo learns about it, it will mean trouble to Conan. And make life interesting for both Vermouth and Bourbon as the BO will now see a possibility that someone who was not Haibara was on that train. That could make the story very interesting.

And a few more examples

Columbo had a episode where the killer had a picture in a camera sitting with other camera. There was no way to know which camera had a certain photo. The killer should know that if you say nothing, then the camera and what is in it stays a mystery. I would call it an improbably event for the killer to show the police that camera and yet guess what happens. Columbo bluffs the killer and the Killer gives himself away by going to a certain camera, not even look at the other camera and saying this one is the one you want.

Dc had a similar case. Conan and Eri set a trap about getting the killer to do the thing (Go near a door with rice) which if he was not the killer, he would not know about. Again A highly improbably event and yet it happens.

Ac had a story where because of a highly improbably event (A shoe buckle) HP was able to find and catch a killer.

Dc had another story where a highly improbably event happened. A test was given to the detectives about how a locked room event happened, the victim being the only one to know and simply not thinking walked into the killers trap and got killed for their trouble ( Remove screws and glue the window frame back)

It does happen.

You are right about my three examples. Since they happened they are not impossible, but they remain highly improbably and thus Black Swans. Them again

Starwars #1 - Shooting a vent in a moving ship moving at high speed while being shot at. Note only one was able to do it.
Starwars #2 - Bad Guy which because of their history and the fact they help to kills millions and tried to kill their own son, at the end appears with two certain good guys suggesting they are good guys now
LOTR #1 Going to where the ring was made, claiming it for your own and being at the bad guys front door and him moving everything he can to find that ring. In fact but for Gollum, the Bad guy would have gotten his ring back.
LOTR #2 Fighting a super strong bad guy and falling into a bottomless pit while still fighting. Then coming at the exactly right moment to force the change of history.
Dc #1 Hieji was pushed off a moving boat in to the dark water and no chance for survival, and all signs show he is dead, only for him to show up on a fishing boat, that in all likely hood should not have been there.

AS to why Sherry Mask is a black swan

1)The event is a surprise (to the observer).

While I expect the Mask to learned about by the BO, most like will be surprised if (when) that happens

2)The event has a major impact.

This event would greatly change (or not) the story. In theory only vermouth knows the truth. That event would quickly have the BO asking questions

3)After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs.

By saying that even though two very highly improbably events (Pm and tape being revisited) already happened and believing that this one must not happen. Then later realizing that if Gosho making a drawing a certain way, there is a reason behind it, and it will show up later.

I am not trying to say the Black Swans in fiction are not part of the plot. They do happen because of the plot. But when one look at them in real life (like DB Cooper, and the events examples in the Black Swam article) sometimes the improbable does happen in real life. The events in fiction even though plot driven can be black swans.

What about Dctp being Forced to cease their subs and yet others do not have that happening. Could that be yet another Black Swan?

Found its TvTrope page see Million to One Chance page

In Fact that page point out two more Black Swans in this show

Spoiler:

Chance of a drug instead killing making one a kid, and one who made the drug also becoming a kid

[Stopwatch]

The different between the tapes and the mask being revisited is that it was actually hinted by Aoyama at the time that the tapes could be important, whereas the mask didn't get that treatment. Also, for storytelling purposes, if the mask was going to be brought back then it'd most likely have to have a suspenseful buildup so people would be interested in what's going to happen.
And I don't think the DCTP thing is a 'Black Swan' at all. Not only does that sort of thing happen all the time , but it was somewhat an inevitability and not at all connected to what's being discussed currently at all.
For the 'examples' you give, I'll just link back TV Tropes at you. Rule of Cool explains most of these. The result of what happens gives a good storyline or moment and so it can be forgiven for being improbable. However, in this case, it goes against Aoyama's style. He does use 'Rule of Cool' (especially with things like KID's tricks), but he practically always hints at things beforehand and in this case he hasn't so the probability of the mask being brought back is simply too improbable both story-wise and going by Aoyama's writing style.

[El Huesudo II]

Aoyama-sensei often leaves Rule of Cool in the hands of the movie teams and concentrates on the rules of mystery for the canon.

And yeah, sstimson. You're missing a crucial point here - improbable stuff happening in fiction (especially in detective fiction) always serves the plot first and foremost. If there's no purpose for the improbable to happen, then it just won't happen.

Conan and Eri set a trap about getting the killer to do the thing (Go near a door with rice) which if he was not the killer, he would not know about. Again A highly improbably event and yet it happens.

Conan/Shinichi has repeatedly stated that deduction is like gambling - sometimes you nail it, sometimes you fail it. And this wasn't as much a question about luck, because they had the case already laid out on their head, all they had to do was to test their theory.

This kind of thing happens a lot in DC, but it's not about how improbable the events are, it's about how solidly laid out is the case on the detectives' side. It wouldn't be so far-fetched to have an episode where their stunt fails and they have to find an alternative way to prove their point.

A test was given to the detectives about how a locked room event happened, the victim being the only one to know and simply not thinking walked into the killers trap and got killed for their trouble ( Remove screws and glue the window frame back)

That wasn't exactly an improbable event. The culprit knew that her intended victim was familiar with the trick, therefore he'd be the one to get it before anyone else.

Heiji was pushed off a moving boat in to the dark water and no chance for survival, and all signs show he is dead, only for him to show up on a fishing boat, that in all likely hood should not have been there.

That's an example of an event that's only good for the plot. Heiji vanishing from the scene builds up the case's tension, and eliminates one of the detectives - leaving Conan to solve the case alone, thus amping up the difficulty factor. And the audience already knows Heiji isn't dead - main characters never die in fillers, and it was kinda stated Heiji's charm does work and works wonders (let's remember that in DC, the supernatural existing is fair play as long as it's not within a case).

Chance of a drug instead killing making one a kid, and one who made the drug also becoming a kid

Also strictly plot point. Interestingly enough, there hasn't been any visible evidence that the APTX4869 actually kills - it's been tested in rats and it's mostly lethal in rats, but rats aren't humans. Drugs do work differently in rats and in humans.

(Correcting me in this point is encouraged; that is, if I'm wrong. Was there any mention of a human APTX taker having died, and his/her death confirmed 100%, anywhere in the plot? If so, give me a holler, please.)

Let me ask you if that happened what would you do if you were Conan. Yes Bourbon appears to be looking into Conan, but let me ask you again, what would you do if you were bourbon and you saw this video? It as they say would be good theater. Instead of a possible boring story about how safe Haibara is, suddenly that dream dies and you get again suspense, and Haibara again retreating into her scared box.

It wouldn't be good theater at all!

Haibara's persecution cycle is officially over. Going back to it would mean the plot is stagnating, not moving further at all. It's also possible that Haibara has a new purpose for the plot, one that requires her to be able to move a little bit more freely - it was heavily hinted already, there's more to the tapes, to Itakura, and to the APTX than what we've been told, and there's a chance that Haibara will now be the conduct for more exposition on that matter.

Not to mention that Haibara coming out of her shell brings the chance for character development. If she remained scared, if she remained paranoid, her character would stay the same forever - not good at all. It's time to let her move on and evolve.

And it's kinda unfair to say that Haibara's persecution was the only source for tension in the plot. I mean, Bourbon just announced he's gonna investigate Conan.

BOURBON.
Just announced.
That he's gonna.
INVESTIGATE.
CONAN.

I'd say that's a pretty good tension builder, don't you think?

[Puto]

Chance of a drug instead killing making one a kid, and one who made the drug also becoming a kid

Also strictly plot point. Interestingly enough, there hasn't been any visible evidence that the APTX4869 actually kills - it's been tested in rats and it's mostly lethal in rats, but rats aren't humans. Drugs do work differently in rats and in humans.

(Correcting me in this point is encouraged; that is, if I'm wrong. Was there any mention of a human APTX taker having died, and his/her death confirmed 100%, anywhere in the plot? If so, give me a holler, please.)

Actually, Haibara mentioned that Shin'ichi was the only of the APTX-takers whose death hadn't been confirmed. Very much high death rate.

[El Huesudo II]

Chance of a drug instead killing making one a kid, and one who made the drug also becoming a kid

Also strictly plot point. Interestingly enough, there hasn't been any visible evidence that the APTX4869 actually kills - it's been tested in rats and it's mostly lethal in rats, but rats aren't humans. Drugs do work differently in rats and in humans.

(Correcting me in this point is encouraged; that is, if I'm wrong. Was there any mention of a human APTX taker having died, and his/her death confirmed 100%, anywhere in the plot? If so, give me a holler, please.)

Actually, Haibara mentioned that Shin'ichi was the only of the APTX-takers whose death hadn't been confirmed. Very much high death rate.

Yes, that's what I meant.

However, I recall that a little bit differently - was she speaking of APTX takers specifically, or just BO targets? Because only Shinichi and Haibara are shown to take the drug, IIRC Gin said they had been given the green light to use the APTX in the field when they used it on Shinichi, and then we never see any BO member using it again.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Chance of a drug instead killing making one a kid, and one who made the drug also becoming a kid

Also strictly plot point. Interestingly enough, there hasn't been any visible evidence that the APTX4869 actually kills - it's been tested in rats and it's mostly lethal in rats, but rats aren't humans. Drugs do work differently in rats and in humans.

(Correcting me in this point is encouraged; that is, if I'm wrong. Was there any mention of a human APTX taker having died, and his/her death confirmed 100%, anywhere in the plot? If so, give me a holler, please.)

Haibara had a long list of people who took the drug with "confirmed" marked next to them, and Shinichi's was unknown. This was shown in the background when she mentioned that Shinichi's was the only unconfirmed death of the people who took the drug so far. (V18-9 pg 6) A few pages later, Conan screams about how large numbers of people were probably killed by the drug and she doesn't deny it. A few pages after that, Haibara tells Conan they will need to get a move on because she figures eventually someone else is going to shrink before the Black Org's eyes -- this implies the Black Org is going to keep using the drug to kill. Gin told Pisco he could use the drug if he wants when that case rolls around, implying that what Haibara said about them continuing to use the drug is true.
So yeah, even if we haven't seen a black suit feeding someone a pill, it is strongly implied that is what is going on in the background.

[El Huesudo II]

Once again, thanks a lot. I hate being wrong and then to continue being wrong for long periods of time.

[Kor]

So from the looks of it, if there's a disguise involved, the likely candidates are: Kogoro, Sonoko and Sera (all three got dragged with the carpet along with Nakamori).

Kogoro: Coming in after everyone. Kid knows Kogoro is Ran's father. Kid knows Conan and Ran come to his events (and he knows Jirokichi allows Conan to be near the targets), so he could have watched the agency and see who's coming along. After seeing Kogoro doesn't come, he could simply put him to sleep in the agency and disguise as him.
Why I don't think it's him: Kid has already disguised as Kogoro in the past, and he never disguises as someone twice. A cheap reason, I know.

Sonoko: The only reason I have to suspect her was because she apparently departed from Ran during the tour, and Kid could have used that chance to disguise as her and join with Ran (He could have put her to sleep or lock her somewhere, dunno).
Why I hope it's not her: Because of this:

Spoiler:

I might be seeing things wrong, but isn't that a Sonoko panty shot? Cause if it is, and it turns out that Kid was Sonoko.........well.......that's not fanserice, it's a very weird fanservice (I can't tell to who exactly a "Kaito disguised as Sonoko panty shot" would be aimed at)
All of that said, though, this is just based on "hope" and no real logic, so it's very possible Kid really disguised as Sonoko.

Sera: Went in the middle to the bathroom. Kid could have used that opportunity to disguise as her. Sera wouldn't go down without a fight, though, so Kid would probably have to put her to sleep.
The reason I have to doubt this option: It kinda seems a bit too easy. She left and then came back. This makes her seem like an obvious suspect for a Kid disguise, but then again, all three of the above are a bit obvious (Kogoro's coming late, Sonoko's leaving and returning and one point, Sera leaving and returning at another point).

Or......all of the three aren't Kid at all and I'm wrong. This is another possibility.