Sera Masumi identity, motive, whatever speculation topic

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

DCTP's lack of specific Sera speculation thread is killing me. No one wants to necro an old case thread because it contains too much off topic case stuff and is well... outdated.

Note that a lot of previous speculation about Sera was done in her intro case thread seen here: http://forum.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?t=5659.0
If you had posts there, repost them here as needed.

[Stopwatch]

Went for top option and \o/ for this thread finally being made

[sonoci]

Went for the first option.

Though, as 647 hasn't been subbed yet, would the title technically be an anime spoiler? :V .........Eh, even if it were, it won't be for too long.

[Kor]

I did consider that, (hence why you can see I edited the first post, though then I reverted the title back so basically nothing was changed) but after watching the new episode, Sera seemed already suspicious enough so I don't think it matters anymore.

[leokiko]

Top option, obviously.

[alicetama]

Akai's sister, who's a regular high school girl... almost.

Spoiler:

So, if the above is true, I would think that Sera and Akai were close, in a way. Sera probably learned a little bit of her deduction skills from Akai, and when he went to Japan, and when she learned that he was killed, she probably went down there to investigate his death... or, to see if he's really dead.

[leokiko]

What I can't figure out is:

Spoiler:

Why does it seem like she knows Shinichi when he was a kid? Like when she said that ''she knew it for a long time''(or something along those lines), responding to Ran's explanation of Shinichi's deduction geekiness.

[sonoci]

What I can't figure out is:

Spoiler:

Why does it seem like she knows Shinichi when he was a kid? Like when she said that ''she knew it for a long time''(or something along those lines), responding to Ran's explanation of Shinichi's deduction geekiness.

This is exactly what I'm wondering about. Everything else was falling into place, but this just baffles me

[Commi-Ninja]

She's Akai's sister, clearly, but I doubt she's just a normal high school girl.

[Citan]

I'm on the Akai's Sister bandwagon. Though nothing is certain yet.

Spoiler:

Perhaps her comment that she "knew it for a long time" in regards to Shinichi is meant as a hint that she's figured out Conan's identity and therefore already knew (through her interactions with Conan) that Shinichi is a mystery otaku long before Ran told her.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

What I can't figure out is:

Spoiler:

Why does it seem like she knows Shinichi when he was a kid? Like when she said that ''she knew it for a long time''(or something along those lines), responding to Ran's explanation of Shinichi's deduction geekiness.

This is exactly what I'm wondering about. Everything else was falling into place, but this just baffles me

I was thinking about that today after watching part 2 of Sera's case and the way she watched Conan run off with Shinichi on the phone made me think she might have known Conan was Shinichi even before she met him. Everything Conan did was confirmation to her or she just egged him on to show more of himself. I think she may have pulled an Eisuke, finding out Conan was Shinichi before she showed up, which would probably be a sort of long time... It is mysterious because Conan's making the news is pretty recent - it took until the fourth Kid case or so (V44) for him to hit the papers majorly I think.

[Citan]

I've been considering that too, Chekhov. I think I mentioned in another thread that Conan hasn't been hiding under the radar nearly as well as he seems to believe he has. By now the media has started reporting his battles with Kaito Kid. He's solved several cases without even bothering to hide himself and god knows how many more with the Detective Boys (Who were offered an interview twice though circumstances stopped both). It doesn't seem unreasonable that Sera, having seen Akai's picture, researched Conan and found out about his exploits. Or that she could have figured out beforehand, or shortly after meeting him, that Conan is or at least has a connection to Shinichi.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

I've been considering that too, Chekhov. I think I mentioned in another thread that Conan hasn't been hiding under the radar nearly as well as he seems to believe he has. By now the media has started reporting his battles with Kaito Kid. He's solved several cases without even bothering to hide himself and god knows how many more with the Detective Boys (Who were offered an interview twice though circumstances stopped both). It doesn't seem unreasonable that Sera, having seen Akai's picture, researched conan and found out about his exploits. Or that she could have figured out beforehand, or shortly after meeting him, that Conan is or at least has a connection to Shinichi.

Shinichi's mom being in the picture would have been a big red flag on who to look for too.

[Citan]

Shinichi's mom being in the picture would have been a big red flag on who to look for too.

You're right! I totally forgot she was in it! Yukiko is a famous actress so it wouldn't take much to find out who she is. All Sera would need to do is research the Kudos to find out they only have one son who is supposed to be 16. So the fact that there's a recent picture of her with a child that looks like a 6-7 year old Shinichi who seems to have the detective skills of a grown adult would make any detective suspicious of him. (Except maybe Kogoro) You might as well replace Yukiko with a big flashing neon sign proclaiming "CONAN IS SHINICHI!"

[M1313]

Sera's real identity really bothers me. I'm afraid this could upset Chekhov (:D), but, even if I almost totally agree with her theories, I still don't believe Sera could be Akai Shuichi's sister. The reason is obvious: Gosho already did this, Eisuke and Rena were siblings and had identical eyes, so it would be something that was already done. We cannot say "the whole Eisuke/Rena thing was an hint to make us understand even Sera and Akai were related", since it was not even an hidden "hint", if we consider it so. I mean, the fact Akai could have escaped death by throwing himself before the bomb blew up could be true since we can consider the fact that Camel did it a few files before was an hint, something like "Camel did this, so remember it because this proves that someone else can re-do it, and it might be important". But this was an "hidden" thing, because we knew about this thing in only two files, and it was a "recent" thing, so that we would never think that someone could use again this trick (Akai) only some files later to fake his own death. On the other hand, the fact Eisuke resembled Rena saw stated even before he appeared, their identical eyes were put in evidence even with Conan's mental comparison between the two, and in the end we knew they were siblings. The whole thing lasted 100 files, there is no way we could not remember something like this when we are able to notice Sera's eyes are Akai's ones. It is not Gosho's style, in conclusion.

And that is why Sera's identity bothers me; if we assume she isn't related to Akai, she still has to be someone important, and not just a simple High-School detective (if it were so, how would she have been able to recognize "Akai" in File 801? and would a normal young detective know about Ai, as File 777 showed to us?). In spite of this, Gosho never created obvious "hints" about Sera being Akai's sister, nor she being someone else. But he did it with Okiya (by naming him "the red guy" when he appeared, he hinted he might be Akai, since "Akai" is "red" in Japanese, while by having him drink Bourbon he said to us he might have been Bourbon); Scar Akai was addressed by the side-message in the last page of File 677 as "Akai", so nevertheless his behaviours, Gosho wants the readers to think he is the real one; it is true that he did not say anything specifical even for Amuro, but Amuro can fairly (and you consider him in this manner too) be Bourbon, so the problem doesn not exist. If Okiya is Akai, and Scar Akai is Amuro, who is Bourbon, then Sera is the remaining one. But if she is not Akai's sister, and if all the mystery characters have already been assigned to some identities (Akai/Okiya, Scar-Akai/Bourbon/Amuro), who is she?

Let's consider the storyline without Sera. I think the manga could have had this same storyline: Okiya was the necessary mystery character, while Bourbon the unknown villain. Scar Akai had to exist since if he is Bourbon, he has to make a move, and the readers wanted to see "Akai" just one time more, while Amuro was necessary since he is the real "face" behind Sca Akai and Bourbon. And Sera? Without her, we simply wouldn't have had the File 768-780 cases; File 800 would have been a race between Okiya and Amuro (Sera only followed Amuro and knocked the culprit out), with Vermouth calling either Okiya or Amuro; File 801 would have been withouth the Sera panels. Amuro may have been at the police station in 804 for Date and not for Sera, so this File may not have changed at all. But Sera IS in the story-line: and the only ways she has affected it are three: because of her, Conan wants to keep Ai away from her, Okiya seems worried about her, and Amuro could know who she is: this even considering the 801 thing, since Amuro is Scar Akai, and Scar Akai hid himself while Sera ran towards him. So, Sera's role in the plot must be found in these only points, since they are the only points that make Sera enter the plot: without them, as showed, the plot could have gone forward even without her.

So:
• Okiya is worried about her
If Okiya is Akai, Akai might be worried about her because he doesn't know who she is, and doesn't want her to harm Ai, since he said he would protect Ai or/and her sister Akemi. But there's no way Akai could not remember one of his colleagues, despite saying something like this during the Clash. So, Sera is not an FBI agent.

• Amuro could know who she is
If Amuro knows who she is, he considers her a peril: he made the typical "scared-eyes" when thinking "Why here?" (though there is a little possibility he isn't referring to her): but it is sure that he somehow fears her, since he doesn't want to be seen from her (when being Scar Akai). If she is a BO agent, it has no sense that he fears that she could call Gin and the others and say to them Akai is alive: Gin already knows about Scar Akai, and if Vermouth told him about the plan, he doesn't have to worry about his life since Gin could think he is the real Akai. So, if Amuro is Bourbon, Sera is very probably neither Bourbon (and that was pretty obvious, Amuro being Bourbon  ) or another BO agent.

• Conan doesn't want Sera to know about Ai
It is true that Conan doesn't want anyone to know about Ai: but it is pretty strange that he even doesn't want her to know she is the girl who lives with Agasa (File 801, when Sera asks about the voice she heard through phone), if he doesn't consider her an enemy. But it is a dead point for her identity, since it is obvious Conan doesn't know who she is: it is probably the only character whose identity Conan is worried about in this plot arc. But it is sure Sera is after Ai: if she recognized her in the online video, she knows her appearance, but only a few charcters know about her face, and about that child being not an ordinary child, but "something else". So, it is almost sure she has a tie with the Black Organization, since the only other parties that know about her are Akai's and Conan's: but neither Conan or Akai seems to be sure about her identities, so, in spite of her not having the typical behaviour of a Black Member, and even if I said she isn't one, I could assume she has some tie with the BO.

And, now, let's think: Sera's role in the plot ha something to do with Amuro and Ai: that is because she is after Ai, and because Amuro's "fear" about her has to have some plot-related motive. And which is the only BO-related thing that connnect Bourbon (Amuro) and Ai, if we assume Bourbon being after Ai is a lie since his action make us deduce so? It is obviously Vermouth. Vermouth was after Ai, and Bourbon is doing something with Vermouth as shown in File 800. And that is what makes me think that one possibility, the one I believe it is the truth the most, is that... Sera might be Vermouth's daughter. And the proofs are found either by the reasonment exposed in this whole post, and in some things that come from the manga.

Observations
- It is not something "strange": if we assume some theories are about Sera being Akai's sister shile Akai's sister having named only once when Kir said she was hospitalized saying to the doctors she was Akai's sister, it is not strange that she could be Vermouth's daughter, even if we were never told about her having a daughter. The same for some other options in this poll, such as a new BO agent, a new Organization, a new assassin and so on.
- The fact she has Akai's eyes is not something that is against the theory, since it is something that is difficult to explain in EVERY theory that is not the "Akai's sister" one: but since I think that it is 99% sure it is not this way, and I explained it, I can assume this is something we cannot still explain, but that is not relevant for the final resolution of her identity.

Sera's role in my opinion
- We know Vermouth and Bourbon made a sort of agreement: Chekhov assumed that it was something like this, and I totally agree with her: Vermouth disguises him as Akai, and he doesn't harm Conan or Ran whenever he ecnounters them during his investigations. But what if... Vermouth doesn't trust Bourbon? It is pretty probable, since she came and see the situation in first person in File 800. So, that's what I assume: Vermouth doesn't trust him, so she sent her daughter, who is not a BO member but at the very least knows about it, to control over him. That is the reason why she approaches Ran (to protect her) and Conan (same). She entered the plot in that precise time because Bourbon had failed the FBI investigation, and was going to start the Kogoro one (by becoming his apprentiece). Before this happens, she becomes their friend in order to protect them from Bourbon. She obviously knows Conan's identity if she is Vermouth's daughter, and she could be keeping the secret as her mother does. But I think she only partially knows the truth, and does want to discover it fully by having Conan tell her the whole story. As Amuro said watching Sera (though there is only a trick used by Gosho, Amuro doesn't know what Sera is doing), "A child's curiosity (Sera's curiosity) and a detective spirit of inquiry (her trying to undercover Shinichi's story) do have much in common". Also, if she is Vermouth's daughter, she knows about Ai's appearances; I cannot tell if she knows she is Sherry, but at least she knows her mother was after her for some reason: it could be likely that she only had fragmentaries informations about her, and once she saw her face, she could somehow (and that's why I said she had ties with the BO) check Sherry's apperance as Pisco did, and understand what might have happened. Once she archieved this, she deleted the video from her computer, and now she's sure about Sherry having shrunk and, above all, about Conan being a shrunk boy (though she already knew it), and about him being Shinichi. That's why in 801 she thought she had known "for a very long time" that Shinichi was a detective otaku (Yukiko knew Shinichi was like this, told to Vermouth, and Vermouth told to her daughter; now Sera knows that Shinichi=Conan, so she can think something like this). Her other phrase (she knew someone who never smiled) might be referred to Vermouth herself: we perfectly know that when she was Sharon she was unhappy, saying stuff like "No God has ever smiled to me" etc. In File 800, so, that is what happened: Sera knew from Ran that Conan was in danger: she told this to her mother, so that while she followed Amuro, Vermouth would have followed her. Ai's sensation came from Amuro and not from Sera (who's not a BO member, though I don't know how much someone like Vermouth's daughter could trigger Ai's sense); when Conan is safe, Vermouth, who's watching from above, phones Bourbon asking to him if he would respect the promise: seeing the caos that happened, it is obvious she asked something like that. Amuro has those scared-eyes because he knows Sera is Vermouth's daughter (but he doesn't know what she is doing there), and he immediately answers the phone imagining something's up (notice he answers with his left hand: we can see from the panel in which his cellphone rings that he used the left hand to take it because with the right one it would have been difficult, being it in the right pocket; but he didn't pass it to his right hand, and he is right-handed, before answering. That means he was in a hurry and wanted to answers as soon as possibile, and it is almost sure that Amuro is right-handed, especially if he is Scar Akai).

Some other things
- Both Camel and Jodie seems to remember something when they saw Sera: this could be because of the eyes, and I clearly stated that there has to be a reason for them that doesn't affect the deduction of her identity. James Black knew she was female and probably does know who she is, but this is not understandable even if she is Akai's sister: if he knows she's Akai's sister and recognized her, why won't he tell this to Camel and Jodie? And if it was because Akai told him not to do, that meant Akai imagined that she could interfere: then why being so worried when she appears (when Okiya watched her through the window)?
- Conan says she is not an enemy, and that probably they have met somewhere: that is because of the eyes, but the "she's not an enemy" part is OK with her being Vermouth's daugther: after all, Vermouth gave up on Sherry, Sera is not a direct BO member... and, at the very least, she is trying to protect them.
- I don't know how she found the video in the website: even if she were Akai's sister, she would have trobles in finding it even knowing her face; so that is something I could assume as "mystery" that will be revealed with other hints, probably near to the conclusion of the arc.
- Gosho said that there will be a Sera/Ai confrontation, but that would happen separately from the plot of the Bourbon arc; this is logical: Sera has nothing to do with Bourbon, if we exclude that she is only protectng Ran and Conan from him, so her encounter with Ai would happen separately from that (it could happen or not, and still Bourbon's plan won't change, and still the final Conan/Bourbon confrontation will take place), and it will be important since Sera is Vermouth's daughter, and since Vermouth has some relationship with Ai, so we could know something about this relationship, or about Vermouth's or Ai's pasts.
- Sera's "delete" phrase while deleting the video is still someting that has to be explained. I heard that if she is Akai's sister, she is referring to the fact that it is difficult to erase someone (and so that Akai is still alive), but I think that is a weak point. But we know that Jodie said Bourbon could be after Ai, so that was only a device to make us think she was Bourbon since she was deleting an Ai video: so the meaning could be even completely different.
- In File 801 she ran towards Scar Akai, and then she thought that it was impossibile that person was there, and so she thought she imagined everything: that could be because Sera was not told about Bourbon's Scar Akai plane, and only knew Bourbon's appearance was Amuro's one. So, her task was to defend Conan and Ran from Amuro, but she did not know about the plan (it was something done with the Boss's approval without the other members knowing it, so it is not unlikely Vermouth didn't tell to her daughter); Sera imagined that Akai was dead, and being him there, she ran towards him. The fact Vermouth told her about Conan/Shinichi is because that is a "personal secret", those kind of secrets that "make a woman woman": but the Scar Akai thing was a secret BO plan, and since the Boss knew about it, he woldn't have allowed it to be known by un-BO members: so that would be why Sera wasn't told about it.

I hope I didn't forget anything  But that is what I think... and still I really really appreciate Chekhov's theories: in fact, apart from this I agree with almost the totality of the things she pointed out (such as Amuro/Bourbon/Scar Akai, or Akai's trick to fake his death)!