Spoilers! The Future of DC <3

[mangaluva]

One part of the interview that amused me is Gosho saying that his brother is a manga otaku who basically makes sure Gosho doesn't become lazy/the mangaka George Lucas

Forgive me if this is a douchey question, but has his brother been in a coma or something for a while? Or is he just bad at his duties?

[Dus]

He probably just comes round to visit him every five years or so, punching him in the face and forcing him to introduce a new plot-related character then appears regularly for a while - until his brothers leaves.

[Nyarl]

There's no pretending that the Akai's death and Bourbon story hasn't been drawn out beyond belief. Akai died five years ago in the manga I believe, and the progress has been... limited... to say the least. The perpetually slow pace of the plot is a very valid criticism.

Your jaded lenses are adding about a year. Bourbon was first mentioned in file 622. The next file will be 784. That's 162 chapters. Vermouth was introduced in file 242. The Vermouth confrontation started in file 429. That's a span of 187 chapters. 162 is still less than 187. So is 175 if you really want to start the "Bourbon arc" at Akai's "death".

The main difference is Aoyama showed us a far more Org. clues during that interim. He also actually showed us Vermouth a few times, while we (arguably) haven't even seen Bourbon yet. I basically argued to Slider about a year ago that Aoyama should show us more of his hand to keep things interesting. Probably not a lot more to show without making things blindingly obvious/"predictable", however.

Yes, it's true, if you want fast resolution of overarching plots, this ain't the manga for you. However, it NEVER has been and is not really much "worse" nowadays, even if it seems that way through jaded lenses. (I do expect to have to wait until file 800 before the big reveal about Bourbon really starts, though. That seems to be the "formula" nowadays.)

[Nyarl]

Forgive me if this is a douchey question[...]

Never! To the black list with you! Jaded anti-fans...

[Jd-]

Your jaded lenses are adding about a year. Bourbon was first mentioned in file 622. The next file will be 784. That's 162 chapters. Vermouth was introduced in file 242. The Vermouth confrontation started in file 429. That's a span of 187 chapters. 162 is still less than 187. So is 175 if you really want to start the "Bourbon arc" at Akai's "death".

While the date is incorrect, your deduction as to it being the result of "jaded lenses" is false (unsurprisingly). The reason I assumed it had been five years is because I was a freshman in college when Clash happened in the anime (of which it lasted an entire semester). I am now done, four years later. My mistake was not accounting for the fall semester in that calculation (which would have made it closer to four full years, and thus put the date closer to five years in the manga had that been the case). Given that the manga is generally one year ahead of the anime, that's why a year was added on.

Nice try on attempting to minimize the numbers by beginning it at the first mention of Bourbon, but that's obviously not where this arc began. When Akai's death is resolved, it will all likely be "over" because, clearly, Akai, Okiya, and Bourbon are all interlinked. Those three stories will all have to be resolved before the community considers it "done". Just how it is, and that's very likely how Gosho is going to approach it.

Now, if we do start it at Akai's death (we do), that will give us what... 191 in all, assuming the next confrontation really starts at 800? (It almost certainly will) Continuing below...

The main difference is Aoyama showed us a far more Org. clues during that interim. He also actually showed us Vermouth a few times, while we (arguably) haven't even seen Bourbon yet. I basically argued to Slider about a year ago that Aoyama should show us more of his hand to keep things interesting. Probably not a lot more to show without making things blindingly obvious/"predictable", however.

Elsewhere in your post, you pretend that the argument I made is not a valid criticism, and yet... Here you have supported it wholeheartedly (albeit inadvertently) by agreeing that the pacing is different and is slower than before. This is indeed the difference between the Borg plot before and the Borg plot now. That is why some people are discontent with its pacing (because it compares unfavorably to what is considered the golden story arc to date) and for good reason. That's the argument and it works. Just because you don't agree with people calling Gosho's work into question  doesn't mean it's suddenly invalid.

Another angle you have forgotten to account for is that this plot has been far more predictable. From us figuring out that Sera was Akai's sister very, very shortly after she was introduced to us immediately surmising that Rikumichi's body was the one they used to fake Akai's death to Okiya's identity and beyond, the mysteries just aren't mindbogglers this time around. Even with proper translations of every file/episode of the Vermouth arc back in the day, I am fairly confident in saying that not only myself but many others that realized the above would not have been able to come close to figuring that one out--to any extent.

Given, there are some key differences, such as us having a lot more time to figure these things out now than we did before (since most of us came along after that arc was over). However, I do not believe that is a very valid argument because of what I mentioned above: these days, we have little difficulty figuring out what's what very early on.

At this point, I guess I just hope Gosho will hold everything he has left in him and unleash it all at 800 and make it as impacting as Clash. If he can throw some curveballs in there, I would be more than happy. Ultimately, though, I think most people already know what the "answers" are to many of the lingering questions and are just awaiting to see how Gosho decides to answer them. This was not always the case, but this particular arc has been more predictable than before. Like it or not, that is a valid criticism.

[kkslider5552000]

there are a few times Jd gets a bit too extreme with some negative opinions of the series, but he liked OVA 11 (more than me at least), so if anything it's rose tinted. :p


I blame 90% of this arc's predictability on Chekhov being smarter than Yusaku btw.

[Abs.]

I blame 90% of this arc's predictability on Chekhov being smarter than Yusaku btw.

^

[red.orchid]

Forgive me if this is a douchey question, but has his brother been in a coma or something for a while? Or is he just bad at his duties?

lol

[Borealis]

I blame 90% of this arc's predictability on Chekhov being smarter than Yusaku btw.

^

^

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

The main differences between the Bourbon arc and the Vermouth arc are...
1) The number of clues. Vermouth arc had so few of them to the point where I felt a bit cheated because Gosho erred on the side of artificial difficulty rather than solvability. Only one clue was really definitive - the pictures of pictures - and the second best clue, the stolen records, was vague in that it there are alternate good interpretations for why they were stolen. Jodie, Akai, and James were a little easier to figure out, but still. Gosho really has done a lot better in the Kir and Bourbon arcs when it came to clues. It wasn't fatal if you missed one.
2) The pacing. The Vermouth arc had plot relevant conversations or mysteries far more often than the Kir or Bourbon arcs. Part of the reason why is that there were four new character groups -Akai, Jodie, Vermouth, Araide- to deal with. It also helped that there was a background mystery about the purpose of the Org and APTX going on when Vermouth and Jodie were not the focus. The Kir arc was shorter so it was faster paced because if had more ground to cover in a short amount of time. The Bourbon arc lacks background mysteries and the plot is more spaced out. I wish that it was more fluid or there was something else in the background.

The Bourbon arc is good, on par with the Vermouth and Kir arc in my opinion. It has the most complicated arc mystery to date; it not only has the Vermouth arc style figuring out character identities, but it also has a difficult fake death scenario to unravel, as well as the usual character motives. Despite the spread out spacing, it deals with clues better than the Vermouth arc.

Regarding people knocking the Bourbon arc for predictability, I think kkslider5552000 has a point in that the availability and completeness solutions on the internet are behind a lot of the perception of predictability. I think people would like the Bourbon arc more if they didn't read any topics about solutions to the arc.
I think it's fair to say most of Detective Conan is predictable for me because I am pretty good at figuring the truth out in advance of it being officially revealed, and that figuring out arcs does not hamper my enjoyment of them. The Vermouth arc was harder than the Bourbon arc because of the lack of clues I mentioned above, but it was nearly as predictable anyway. Gosho followed the standard make the good guy suspicious routine, Jodie blatantly came out talking about the FBI, and after the New York case, I could see the Sharon is Chris is Vermouth and is grateful for being rescued solution coming from a mile away. The real twist was finding out Vermouth wasn't aging, but you only got clues for that in the second to final and finale case - and I would have been happier if Gosho had dropped clues about that in advance.

Summary: The Vermouth arc was nearly as predictable as the Bourbon arc. (See arguments above for why.) Also, there is a good chance you will like the arcs better if you stay away from Detective Conan forums on the internet.

[Jd-]

I blame 90% of this arc's predictability on Chekhov being smarter than Yusaku btw.

The major issue isn't that Chekhov dissects them thoroughly and well as they unfold, it's that even those not looking to actively solve the mysteries are picking up on the answers (I am referring to myself here). I say this because, while Chekhov routinely gives us the solid proof necessary to accept a theory as "waiting to be confirmed in the story itself", that hasn't even been necessary for virtually this entire arc (though it has certainly been helpful in proving that these suspicions were founded, no question). We didn't need a grand unified theory to link that Sera was Akai's sister and Okiya was Akai in disguise and that Rikumichi's body is the double used to achieve Akai's "death", though having it organized into one concise document allows for everyone to get up to speed in one go. For my money, the only outstanding question that hasn't been thoroughly answered is exactly who Bourbon is.

Again, though: Sera being Akai's sister was just too easy. Even without the name clue that Hadaa came up with (I believe it was him anyway), Knightus and I were hypothesizing it very early into her introduction. There's just not a lot of challenge in something that proves so obvious; it's just one more card being added to the "true, but waiting to be confirmed" pile. There was very little doubt after Okiya was introduced that it was Akai in disguise, and--ironically--Scar Akai's introduction sealed it. I think the absolute most vital problem is the complete lack of convincing misdirection. As I said above: I don't even set out to actively solve each and every mystery, so if the solution is obvious to me, I can't imagine it being much challenge to those that actually sit down and exhaustively pencil down their thoughts.

Regarding people knocking the Bourbon arc for predictability, I think kkslider5552000 has a point in that the availability and completeness solutions on the internet are behind a lot of the perception of predictability. I think people would like the Bourbon arc more if they didn't read any topics about solutions to the arc.
I think it's fair to say most of Detective Conan is predictable for me because I am pretty good at figuring the truth out in advance of it being officially revealed, and that figuring out arcs does not hamper my enjoyment of them. The Vermouth arc was harder than the Bourbon arc because of the lack of clues I mentioned above, but it was nearly as predictable anyway. Gosho followed the standard make the good guy suspicious routine, Jodie blatantly came out talking about the FBI, and after the New York case, I could see the Sharon is Chris is Vermouth and is grateful for being rescued solution coming from a mile away. The real twist was finding out Vermouth wasn't aging, but you only got clues for that in the second to final and finale case - and I would have been happier if Gosho had dropped clues about that in advance.

My primary issue with this is that if the standard formula is that predictable, the simple solution seems to be to just do away with the standard formula altogether and try something new.

And as I started in my original post, I really don't think the time factor (of having so much discussion time between plot cases) or the community factor play a part in how predictable this arc has been (so far?). Even with Sera being Akai's sister, Gosho laid way too many coats of paint. The hints are just too obvious--even to those not looking for them--and not exactly difficult to piece together what they are referring to. Right now, all of these clues are just confirming what we already think instead of deepening the mystery.

As a fan, I am hoping that Gosho has an "a-ha!" moment in store coming up similar to the Vermouth revelation that is none of the following:

- Akai liiivvveeessss and is Okiya in disguise
- Bourbon is Scar Akai
- Sera is Akai's sister

If any of those three is intended to be the "a-ha!" moment, I don't see it comparing favorably--as a whole--to either the Vermouth or Kir arcs. That said, as I mentioned in my last post: I think most people already know what the "answers" are to many of the lingering questions and are just awaiting to see how Gosho decides to answer them. So long as those pivotal moments are executed well (and I suspect they will be), it will make up for some of how predictable this arc has been.

[kkslider5552000]

I don't see how having less clues is somehow a bad thing. Maybe for you Chekhov, but for me the best plot twists are the ones that you don't see coming yet make complete sense. Sure, figuring out a case by yourself is cool, but cases don't take several years.

Actually, considering how this is later in the series, there should be less clues if anything. Increases the challenge, like a video game or something.

[KaitoGirl]

Alhtough I like the idea of how things will come... is kinda sad know that how is gonna be... well, is not too presicely but... I shouldn't have read this post 

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

I don't see how having less clues is somehow a bad thing.

Because then it becomes a suspense story rather than a true detective story. The premise of the series is that people are able to calculate the solution well in advance.

Maybe for you Chekhov, but for me the best plot twists are the ones that you don't see coming yet make complete sense.

Given the genre, plot twists without clues leading up to them are like spices, they add flavor, but are best used sparingly because otherwise they overwhelm and cheapen the story.

Sure, figuring out a case by yourself is cool,

Being able to do this is what makes Detective Conan great vs. ok.

but cases don't take several years.

Why not? The Vermouth arc took several years and everyone liked it. What about serially published mystery book series that last several years?

Actually, considering how this is later in the series, there should be less clues if anything. Increases the challenge, like a video game or something.

That would be stupid. Remember this is a series aimed at kids from late elementary school to high school age. It's really damn easy to guess Okiya is Akai and scar Akai is Bourbon. A kid could do it - and that's the point because kids and teens are the target age group. To compensate, Gosho has woven in different levels of difficulty. It's harder to find all the clues pointing to these solutions. It's also harder to explain precisely how Akai faked his death. Even then, besides me, I've only seen about two dozen or so people out of thousands of fans across various English speaking forums be able to explain one of the three main theories (Okiya is Akai, Scar Akai is Bourbon, and how Akai faked his death) with better-than-barely-acceptable amounts of proof who arrived at their solutions mostly independently.

I think Gosho realized that the Vermouth arc was too hard for the target audience IMO, so he made the following arcs, Kir and Bourbon, more clue rich and thus easier. For well reasoned older teen/adult the Vermouth arc was about right, but for a kid it came out of nowhere. I don't know why people get so disappointed when a shounen manga is set at a difficulty level appropriate for young people. I'm grateful Gosho provides some more difficult challenges so adults can get into it too.

[kkslider5552000]

Given the genre, plot twists without clues leading up to them are like spices, they add flavor, but are best used sparingly because otherwise they overwhelm and cheapen the story.

less clues doesn't equal none

4 years does equal "used sparingly"

And Scar Akai and Okiya's identity as Bourbon and Akai is 2/3 for mystery characters kids can figure out. 2/3 ain't bad so...