The charm and the sports bar assault case: Vote for the culprit!

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

You can change your vote so feel free to guess wildly. I have speculations below but DO NOT read them until you have guessed yourself! It spoils the fun of guessing...

My first theory is that the assaulted guy, Kunisue, went to the baseball game. The assaulted guy caught the home-run baseball hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. Catching a baseball is pretty exciting, especially if it is the only one hit by a team. The baseball is the evidence Kunisue wanted to show his roommate to prove his luck has returned. The reason why Kunisue's right jacket pocket is empty and everything is stuck in his back pants pocket is because he had the baseball in his jacket pocket and couldn't fit anything else in it since a baseball is pretty large. The baseball was taken by the culprit.

As to who the culprit is, I'm not sure yet, but one suspect, Kengo Harufuji, was eating a hot dog which is traditional baseball stadium fare in America and according to some stadium websites are also served in Japan. However the items the other suspects were eating/ drinking: popcorn and beer, are also common at baseball stadiums in Japan. (at least in the Tokyo Dome).
Kengo Harufuji's alibi is a little suspicious. The crime happened between 7:55 and 8:05 meaning by 8:05 or later the store owner found the assaulted guy just after 8:05. Before 8 o'clock Harufuji received a telephone call from a withheld number. He thought it would get too noisy from the celebration crackers going off so he stepped outside for a bit. The person on the phone was a solicitor who began a speech. Harufuji yelled at him and cut him off. Harufuji said to Takagi, "when I returned to the bar there was a lot of excitement from the assault..." If he got back at a time when there was excitement from the assault it would have to be after 8:05 when the employee found the body. At the bare minimum, he had to be outside from 8:00 at the latest to 8:05 at the earliest . 5 minutes or more is a bit too long to talk to a telemarketer and cut him off as Harufuji describes.

[Rellik]

the person behind all this is Heiji.

the motive is obviously he thinks Kazuha has a crush on that guy, whoever he is, and Heiji wants to kill all opposition so that Kazuha belongs to him only.

of course its impossible for him to have been the one who assaulted the guy, but he must have ordered one of the three to do it.

or he asked for Colonel Mustard's help.

[bluekaitou1412]

It's gotta be AOKO.
*really wishing she did it*
Man, give her some SCREENTIME!!!!!!!!!

[sunset1215]

i read your theory.. but i believe the ball he caught was not baseball.. but the golf ball.. the victim went to the golf game and caught the ball that the golfer threw at the audience.. my reason is that Heiji and Conan saw the tv news on golf and knew that the culprit must have took the ball without knowing..

[hakkaino7]

I'm not sure if it's a golf ball or a baseball, but I think that ball has to be in the popcorn. That's why Takuya Kyuuma stopped the bartender from cleaning his popcorn. Having that ball in his popcorn could prove as an evidence.

And also, the cigarettes in the victim pockets could belong to Takuya, since if he had the cigarettes with him he would look suspicious because it would destroy his alibi.

Another weird thing is that why would the victim place both cigarettes and a cellphone in his back pocket? He might sit on it. So it could Chekhov's theory that the baseball/golf ball (definitely not a soccer ball  ) in his jacket's pocket.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

I'm not sure if it's a golf ball or a baseball, but I think that ball has to be in the popcorn. That's why Takuya Kyuuma stopped the bartender from cleaning his popcorn. Having that ball in his popcorn could prove as an evidence.

And also, the cigarettes in the victim pockets could belong to Takuya, since if he had the cigarettes with him he would look suspicious because it would destroy his alibi.

    The reaction to the popcorn was definitely overdone and I didn't consider the cigarettes could have been planted evidence. I have no idea how the culprit would take a baseball or a golf ball without knowing it, unless the criminal took the guy's entire jacket and put a different jacket on him for some reason. Why would the criminal do that, especially when he runs the risk of having it recognized as not his? Hakkaino7, your bald Hattori avatar is cracking me up.

i read your theory.. but i believe the ball he caught was not baseball.. but the golf ball.. the victim went to the golf game and caught the ball that the golfer threw at the audience.. my reason is that Heiji and Conan saw the tv news on golf and knew that the culprit must have took the ball without knowing..

    I don't think Kunisue went to the golf game. As Hattori mentioned, the timing was tight and the victim came to the bar an hour earlier. Also, when Hattori and the gang went to meet the roommate, the victim had already called him to say he wanted to show him something. The come-from-behind victory couldn't have happened yet. However, if the victim left the golf game partway after catching a ball one of the players had thrown earlier it's possible. I think the real point of the golf game was to alert Hattori and Conan to possibility he caught a baseball.
     Maybe Kunisue did something like that one baseball fan who caught a ball that an outfielder would have caught and caused it to be a homerun instead of an out. If he caught the losing team's ball in the last inning, then it didn't affect the course of the game much, but it could have pissed off one of the other team's supporters. The only problem with that theory though is how would the culprit take the baseball without knowing he did? That last line of the chapter is sure complicating things.

[Nyarl]

The only one who doesn't have an alibi that's easy to check is Takuya. People probably would have noticed that Kazuo came in after 8 and didn't know about the anniversary, being in the room with everyone while not really participating in the celebration would make him stand out. The cell phone log should have the time and length of the call Kengo received, even if the ID had been blocked, and since this doesn't appear to be a planned murder (the weapon was too impromptu) it wasn't a call staged for an alibi.

As for the evidence and motive, I like the line of thought Hakkaino, Sunset and MacGuffin are on. Perhaps the evidence is an autographed ball which the victim somehow luckily got. The culprit thought it unfair someone who didn't really appreciate the autograph "stole" it (in the culprit's mind) or some such. Assuming it's a golf ball, perhaps the culprit sees it as a memento of the historic come back win which the victim didn't even respect the sport or players enough to stay to see in full. (Golf otaku are dangerous!  )

...
  However, if the victim left the golf game partway after catching a ball one of the players had thrown earlier it's possible.
...

Since we don't know exactly when he called his roommate, I think that's likely. (I don't think he'd care so much about getting a ball from a sloppily played baseball game. LOL, last edit: Though I suppose he might not care about the ball so much as how he was able to get it despite his injury... The confusing part is Heiji claiming that the victim called the game the greatest instead of just something that might have happened to him at the game. Heh, did Heiji jump to a conclusion about what the victim meant?)

Okay, one more thought I've been toying with. If it's an autographed ball, perhaps the victim took it to the sports bar to check it against an autograph there. I can't really think of a good reason why he'd need to do that, though. As for Heiji's last line, I suspect it's that the culprit was unaware of the object's full significance rather than unaware of the object itself (don't know if that interpretation would fit the original Japanese, though).

[sunset1215]

I'm not sure if it's a golf ball or a baseball, but I think that ball has to be in the popcorn. That's why Takuya Kyuuma stopped the bartender from cleaning his popcorn. Having that ball in his popcorn could prove as an evidence.

And also, the cigarettes in the victim pockets could belong to Takuya, since if he had the cigarettes with him he would look suspicious because it would destroy his alibi.

    The reaction to the popcorn was definitely overdone and I didn't consider the cigarettes could have been planted evidence. I have no idea how the culprit would take a baseball or a golf ball without knowing it, unless the criminal took the guy's entire jacket and put a different jacket on him for some reason. Why would the criminal do that, especially when he runs the risk of having it recognized as not his? Hakkaino7, your bald Hattori avatar is cracking me up.

i read your theory.. but i believe the ball he caught was not baseball.. but the golf ball.. the victim went to the golf game and caught the ball that the golfer threw at the audience.. my reason is that Heiji and Conan saw the tv news on golf and knew that the culprit must have took the ball without knowing..

    I don't think Kunisue went to the golf game. As Hattori mentioned, the timing was tight and the victim came to the bar an hour earlier. Also, when Hattori and the gang went to meet the roommate, the victim had already called him to say he wanted to show him something. The come-from-behind victory couldn't have happened yet. However, if the victim left the golf game partway after catching a ball one of the players had thrown earlier it's possible. I think the real point of the golf game was to alert Hattori and Conan to possibility he caught a baseball.
     Maybe Kunisue did something like that one baseball fan who caught a ball that an outfielder would have caught and caused it to be a homerun instead of an out. If he caught the losing team's ball in the last inning, then it didn't affect the course of the game much, but it could have pissed off one of the other team's supporters. The only problem with that theory though is how would the culprit take the baseball without knowing he did? That last line of the chapter is sure complicating things.

the ball in popcorn sounds plausible.. though he may just have not wanted to waste food..

i'm sure if kunisue caught the last ball and caused it to be a homerun instead of an out.. the tv news would surely report it.. i'm sure it would be big news..

also an autographed ball seems unlikely in the baseball case.. i'm not sure.. but i don't think you are able to get an autograph so easily after a baseball game.. if it is a golf ball.. the golfer might have signed it before he threw it.. but i still think it's unlikely to be an autographed ball..

oh i just thought of something.. if the ball is the evidence.. it has to have some proof that it was caught during the game.. so it's actually likely to have a signature on it.. otherwise even if the culprit has it.. he could just say he got it somewhere somehow.. oh no.. i'm contradicting myself now.. 

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

oh i just thought of something.. if the ball is the evidence.. it has to have some proof that it was caught during the game.. so it's actually likely to have a signature on it.. otherwise even if the culprit has it.. he could just say he got it somewhere somehow.. oh no.. i'm contradicting myself now.. 

I definitely think it's a baseball instead of a golf ball, because only a baseball is large enough to force someone to put everything in their back pocket. A golf ball is pretty small and I think the wallet, the cellphone, or the cigarettes could have fit in along next to it. The other appropriately sized ball is a tennis ball, a sport which the victim plays, but there was no mention of a tennis match.
If Kunisue didn't handle it too much, it could still have the fingerprints of the pitcher on it. Cameras filming the game could have also captured Kunisue catching it. Also, the ball would have Kunisue's fingerprints on it as well, at least proving that Kunisue had handled it at one point.
I can think of two non-mutually exclusive reasons why the criminal may have wanted to take the ball. One is that the criminal touched it when Kunisue showed it to him and then he it took to dodge suspicion in case the police analyzed the ball for fingerprints. The second possibility is the criminal took the ball to prevent the police from finding out the argument was about baseball in first place.

I noticed that Takuya Kyuuma prevented the bartender from even picking up the popcorn. A heavy ball in the popcorn would have definitely been noticeable. Also I noticed that the hotdog was "left to cool down" so it might have been purchased from the sports bar instead of brought from the baseball game. The beer seems to be in a glass which would not have come from a baseball game. The popcorn could have been brought from the game or purchased at the bar. The choice of food items by itself doesn't seem to be conclusive evidence.

The phrase, "could it be, the culprit took it without even realizing" could also refer to some aspect of the proof that the culprit doesn't know about. Maybe the argument didn't take place at the baseball stadium and instead occurred only after the victim arrived at the bar. If that was the case, maybe the culprit didn't realize that Kunisue's baseball was caught at the game. It is possible for a heated argument to have not been noticed if it the two argued in the toilets and no one heard because the customers were noisy as the time approached 8:00.

The only one who doesn't have an alibi that's easy to check is Takuya. People probably would have noticed that Kazuo came in after 8 and didn't know about the anniversary, being in the room with everyone while not really participating in the celebration would make him stand out. The cell phone log should have the time and length of the call Kengo received, even if the ID had been blocked, and since this doesn't appear to be a planned murder (the weapon was too impromptu) it wasn't a call staged for an alibi.

I think Kazuo's alibi is probably hard to verify since everyone was all worked up and were probably focused on other things. However, I think he's out as a suspect since he didn't seem to know about the party unless he was faking ignorance. The culprit would have timed his assault so that it would be masked by the celebration. Kazuo would also be in serious trouble on the off chance someone did see him come before the celebration because his ignorance alibi would be blown out of the water. I think that makes him unlikely as a suspect.

Takuya's alibi is pretty vague and going out to buy cigarettes is a pretty easy alibi to whip together. If Takuya got his cigarettes from a machine instead of a store, then the police couldn't be sure what time they were purchased. The best the police could do is check the bills or change for fingerprints and see if they are near the top of the collection bin. The only potential problem I see with the alibi is that because it is vague the police might investigate him more closely and might discover evidence on him. On the flip side, because the crime is likely spontaneous it is unlikely the culprit thought far enough ahead.

Regarding Harufuji's alibi, you are right that a call would be hard to stage in advance. His call would have to have come in before the party for it to appear legit since that is what he testified. Harufuji could have faked the call before beating the victim in the bathroom. If he left before the celebration, used a payphone, and dialed the code to withhold caller ID, Harufuji could have left it off the hook to make it look like the call was still going while he went back to the bar. This plan has a couple drawbacks, it requires some premeditation and someone could have noticed that he didn't receive a call like he claimed if his ringer was on.

For now I'm switching my vote to Takuya, but I will stay open minded.

[Nyarl]

Regarding Harufuji's alibi, you are right that a call would be hard to stage in advance. His call would have to have come in before the party for it to appear legit since that is what he testified. Harufuji could have faked the call before beating the victim in the bathroom. If he left before the celebration, used a payphone, and dialed the code to withhold caller ID, Harufuji could have left it off the hook to make it look like the call was still going while he went back to the bar. This plan has a couple drawbacks, it requires some premeditation and someone could have noticed that he didn't receive a call like he claimed if his ringer was on.

For now I'm switching my vote to Takuya, but I will stay open minded.

I suppose it could be a call Harufuji already knew he'd get before he attacked the victim. A bit of a convenient coincidence but not so impossible that I can rule him out, I suppose. I'll try not to get too attached to the idea I end up disliking the story if I'm wrong. (Though... if it's something like, "You couldn't have been here to watch beach volleyball, it's the middle of winter," I might pull out some hair...  )

[hakkaino7]

It's the beach volley girls' underwear that he took! It's in the popcorn! The beach volley guy is the culprit and took it from the victim! Then placed it in the soccer guy's  popcorn because of the confusion! 

Now that's lucky getting it from the beach volley girls... If the culprits friend doesn't think so, then so god help him

Edit: And yeah, my avatar also cracks me up every time I see it 

[Carmady]

I noticed that Takuya Kyuuma prevented the bartender from even picking up the popcorn. A heavy ball in the popcorn would have definitely been noticeable. Also I noticed that the hotdog was "left to cool down" so it might have been purchased from the sports bar instead of brought from the baseball game. The beer seems to be in a glass which would not have come from a baseball game. The popcorn could have been brought from the game or purchased at the bar. The choice of food items by itself doesn't seem to be conclusive evidence.

The phrase, "could it be, the culprit took it without even realizing" could also refer to some aspect of the proof that the culprit doesn't know about. Maybe the argument didn't take place at the baseball stadium and instead occurred only after the victim arrived at the bar.

Yes, I think the argument definitely happened at the bar, not the baseball game.

The container for the popcorn would probably be different depending on where it was bought, so they would have noticed if it came from the game.

Based on the reaction, the ball is in the popcorn. And the culprit does not know that the ball was caught at the game.

The question is, why take the ball?

My guess is that the culprit had a false impression that the ball was valuable.

This could have happened if Kunisue was talking about his luck and how great it was. The problem is, would that really be enough to kill over without knowing why it was valuable?

Wild guess: Kunisue autographed the ball himself, and his name looks similar to a famous baseball player.