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We have a new Kaito Kid case this time. Last time was the Instant Movement Trick. I saw through that one right away. It was surprising since Kid cases are normally very hard. He specializes in the things you can't see. This case seems to be up to par for him. So much is confusing about this case.

First thing I noticed was that note. The one that was announced in the paper. Like Conan, it's odd how the note is written in traditional Japanese vertical writing form. In the past all this notes were horizontal. It also seemed too straight forward. Kid's notes are always filled with riddles.

There is also the issue of the drawing. It wouldn't be the first time it was faked. There was the case with the artist. My problem is that if a person wanted to forge it, why not make a better one? The drawings are traditionally done by hand and done in a rather 2D form.
This most recent one is 3D. You can see the top of the hat and his hair, peaking from the brim. The only reason I think someone would make such an obvious fake would be, because they want people to think this Kid is fake. I did notice that the sketch on the note matches the photo on the from of the newspaper Ran held. Hard to believe those are related since the paper was released after the note arrived. I looked it up. This would be the first time Kid has ever challenged Jirokichi. It the past it was always Jirokichi who challenged Kid. Kid would then send a note, when he had the time, as a reply to accept. It just feels odd that in this note he addresses him as Advisor Jirokichi. Seems rather formal.
Not to mention that Kid doesn't go after random challenges. He always has a target. A gem of some kind. The second note is far more specific. It wants something inside the Iron Tanuki.

There is the Iron Tanuki itself. The name Tanuki, or raccoon dog, has connections in Japanese folklore. It was believed to have magical abilities to disguise itself and change forms. That's probably one of the big reasons Chopper, from One Piece, is always mistaken for a tanuki. It almost seems perfect for Kid who changes forms. Even the safe is misleading. It's so complicated to open from the outside, but inside it's simple.
I'm thinking the fact that the safe has that air crack and is easily opened from the inside will be part of the key.

Most likely Kid is already disguised as someone in the house. We have, so far, Gotou Zengo, the quiet bodyguard; Akitsu Masihiko, the bumbling servant; and then we have Seto Mizuki, the young maid.
Lupin is out of the picture. It was a few days ago. The maid seemed surprised by that. I'm suspicious that Kid might be responsible for that. For whatever trick Kid has planned, if he's responsible for this original challenge, he needed Lupin out of the way. That's going to depends on why he's in the animal hospital. If it's serious I doubt it's Kid. Kaito Kid would drug the dog, but he'd never do anything that would cause it serious harm.
I was seriously suspicious of the bodyguard at first. I thought that if Kid has altered the sensitivity of the trapped room he needed to switch Kogoro's cigarette with one that is heavier to fool everyone. That seems unlikely since it was Jirokichi who threw it. He should of noticed if the cigarette was oddly heavy.
The servant, Masihiko, looks good for dropping the note in the safe room. He's the only one who entered the room. Though if this all started as a trap by Jirokichi that could still be possible.
It's hard to imagine the Maid it Kid, right now. This is her first day. Hard to believe she could of altered anything in that room.
It strikes me odd that Jirokichi surrounded himself by so many new people in the midst of a Kid attack.

From what we know about this case. Once the servant left the room Jirokichi quickly closed the door. That note could of gone unseen if the inspector hadn't opened the door and looked inside.
What's bugging me is Jirokichi's look there in the last panel. He looks excites, like he expected this.

I could go into greater detail, but until I know more I'm not too interested in speculating.

if you only new how meny ways there is  to trick the human eye Kristantei   

Aluecard wrote: if you only new how meny ways there is  to trick the human eye Kristantei   

I'm an artist. I know a LOT of them. I also know how to break the trick of magical illusions. The problem is with magic tricks is that you can normally only tell how they are done after they are completed. To catch Kid you have to stop him before he gets what he's after.
I have a lot of ideas about how Kid is going to steal from that vault. That's why I said I wasn't going to just speculate.

As far as I know, these weight sensors only get a change of weight on the place they are installed. That means that if they are turned out and someone puts a letter on the floor and they are turned on afterwards, they won't detect that there is more weight on the floor! But if it is turned in and the weight on the floor changes, the trap gets activated! I think that's how it works!

That's why this new servant is the most suspicous character for me to be KID! When he was in the room, he could have put it on the floor and then close the room quickly (as we can see)! Because the detectors were turned off in that time, they wouldn't notive the change of weight!

I'm looking forward to the next chapter!

For me, the weirdest thing was that our 3 main suspects are new people, it is like as if Jirokichi wants to lure out the real KID. So he gave Kid a chance to appear in the house as another person.
I think it might be possible that Jirokichi wrote the first warning which he made obviously fake in order to lure out the real KID. Why? Maybe he got bored that he always challenged Kid but never succeeded in catching him, so now he makes it look like as if Kid challanged him. If Kid doesn't show up, that is Jirokichi's victory, if he shows up that might be also Jirokichi's victory since he has big faith in his "Iron Tanuki". I can think that muh of that old geezer.

@Kris: Speaking of One Piece, do you make your theories there too or is OP too irrational to some extent that you don't like to deal with it?

Stepx wrote: As far as I know, these weight sensors only get a change of weight on the place they are installed. That means that if they are turned out and someone puts a letter on the floor and they are turned on afterwards, they won't detect that there is more weight on the floor! But if it is turned in and the weight on the floor changes, the trap gets activated! I think that's how it works!

That's why this new servant is the most suspicous character for me to be KID! When he was in the room, he could have put it on the floor and then close the room quickly (as we can see)! Because the detectors were turned off in that time, they wouldn't notive the change of weight!

I'm looking forward to the next chapter!

Good eye. I had thought about that. You can do something similar with kitchen scales. If something was on the floor to begin with, when the security was set, the sensor might not detect that kind of change. It would treat it like a base line, but right now we don't even know how this one works.
I'm confused about one other thing concerning that room. Notice the one wall has curtains on it. If there isn't a window there, why is it covered?

Misztina wrote: For me, the weirdest thing was that our 3 main suspects are new people, it is like as if Jirokichi wants to lure out the real KID. So he gave Kid a chance to appear in the house as another person.
I think it might be possible that Jirokichi wrote the first warning which he made obviously fake in order to lure out the real KID. Why? Maybe he got bored that he always challenged Kid but never succeeded in catching him, so now he makes it look like as if Kid challanged him. If Kid doesn't show up, that is Jirokichi's victory, if he shows up that might be also Jirokichi's victory since he has big faith in his "Iron Tanuki". I can think that muh of that old geezer.

@Kris: Speaking of One Piece, do you make your theories there too or is OP too irrational to some extent that you don't like to deal with it?

You are right. That is odd he surrounded himself with new people. It makes it easier to impersonate someone.
just have an odd feeling about Jirokichi being the one who set this up. Making a fake Kid who does or doesn't show up. It feels kind of cowardly and desperate. Just doesn't seem right.

I don't see much of a point in making theories about One Piece. It's not a series that is known for logic. Deductive reasoning doesn't mean much with the series.
Look at all the damage people survive from in that series. Pell, the bird guy, somehow survived being point blank with a bomb. Kohza was even shot. Logic is no part of the series, but still fun.

(why is it covered?)
  who knows we find out soon 

I don't see why Jirokichi expects this cage to catch Kid.  Not just looking back at past failures, but the cage itself seems awful slow.  The sounds of the bars could be heard almost immediately after the cigarette hit the floor, yet there was enough time before they were revealed that Kogoro and Jirokichi could have a short back-and-forth.  That seems like it'd easily be enough time to escape.

As for Kid himself, my strongest suspicion is on Akitsu.  He spent quite a bit of time on the floor, yet I would think the only thing on the floor would stand out enough that you could just walk in and pick it up.  Not only that, but he acted like an idiot as he left to make everyone watch him instead of looking in the room, and then Jirokichi promptly shut the door.  Also, compare the page where they're looking at the note on the ground before picking it up with the page of Akitsu looking for the cigarette.  Both are about the same place in the room.  Though the bodyguard is somewhat suspicious too, just because who acts that way towards a cigarette?

For the letter, I doubt it was the original Kid's letter.  Look at this image, top right panel.  That seems to be how the original Kid wrote, which is also in the horizontal style, but with "No. 1412" as the signature rather than a picture.

Overall though, with only seeing a few pages that actually have clues towards the "mystery", it's pretty hard to come up with any sort of advanced theories, as you also stated.

I just love crazy theories. So it it goes. First the maid is mostly likely in my book to be KID simply because she is too new. The paper may have been planed ( the second one ) by Jirokichi himself. even if that is not so the paper could have been slid under the door. I have a feeling that the least movement inside the Safe with the door closed will open case ( remember the 3 inch gap. It is possible if you can again slide a piece of paper under the door, it just might open. ) A crazy thought is that Jirokichi is planning a thief and planing to blame KID for it. ( like the painting case ) .The weight of the paper might be just low enough that the trip case would not be tripped. ( say the trip case closes if the weight in the room changes 1 gram, anything less and the trip would not even known the weight changed )

Later

i dnt think so, they were surprised how the paper got there, meaning that the floor can detect changes down to 0.1g (depending on the density of paper). and the fact that police guy told jirokichi to turn off the security shows that it was on all the time, or jirokichi is kid (which is unlikely)

Speaking of not writing in the usual way...

hakkaino7 wrote: Speaking of not writing in the usual way...

Spoiler:

is the first post of this topic made by a fake Kris or was he just drunk or high... lol 

The lenght of it should be enough proof. And the usual deduction phrases "I noticed" and "most likely" are also present. 

What might prove that Jirokichi wrote the first & fake notice is that, as Conan said, its composition is "too outdated". And there is no old guy in this story besides Jirokichi himself. Except Kaito Kid's helper Jii-san of course, but I don't see the reason behind it.

Btw. the fact that the dog is not present is really bugging me. But Jirokichi as KID... Although it is a bit suspicious that Jirokichi knew that Kogoro was a smoker, however in the manga he has never seen him smoke. And Kid imersonated Kogoro before so he knows about it. I think these might support the Jirokichi is Kid theory at the moment.

Another possible reason why the note wasn't detected is because paper slowly is affected by air friction so it descends slowly and the final velocity on landing is slower. The cigarette is less affected, so it hits the ground at a higher velocity. Assuming both had the same mass, the cigarette still generates more force... But this only works if the weight sensor can not sense featherweight objects.

I'd still agree on the note left out while the security was secretly turned off for a short while. In that case I think it's probably Akitsu. Since Jirokichi turned off the security for Akitsu to get the cigarette, and placed the card that time. It's just one of the possibilities.

The weight sensor might be like the one used in measuring minute weights such as laboratory agar. When turned on, it reads the weight on it as 0.000000, even if there were weights or not. If there were, and those were removed when the sensor was set, the sensor reads a negative weight. But if it works that way, would putting furniture before turning on the sensor matter? If it really reads everything above it as base line weight, then even if furniture were there, there'd be no alarm.

Maybe the sensor is not really like the usual digital scales. But since the letter is light, only it's weight (without velocity of it dropping off to the floor, if Akitsu left it) wouldn't be enough for the sensor to react.

Going to the 3 new staff. If one of them was Kid...
1) Goto Zengo: He could have done that to test/check security for himself, but every bodyguard should have been informed about the security, so he's less likely the one
2) Akitsu Masuhiko: Read above. He the one most probable, I guess. He acted clumsily to attract everyone's attention and could have done the placing of the letter.
3) Seto Mizuki: For her to look for the dog is quite unreasonable; she could've asked someone else about the dog. She could have been using that as an alibi to roam around and check the surroundings.

But there's still the "other one", so culprits are 2 of 3.

yume_no_meitantei wrote: But if it works that way, would putting furniture before turning on the sensor matter? If it really reads everything above it as base line weight, then even if furniture were there, there'd be no alarm.

The reason for no furniture isn't because it would set off the alarm.  Look at the page where the cage is fully formed.  There's even bars on the floor and ceiling, meaning furniture would obstruct the lower bars.

But there's still the "other one", so culprits are 2 of 3.

I have a slight feeling that Seto might be the fake Kid, with Akitsu being the real one.  Something about her bumping into Conan doesn't jive with me.  I don't feel it has anything to do with the note... but why would she be holding her face like Conan is?  The highest she should be holding is her stomach.  The only way her face would've been hit is if she were on her knees looking for something, but if that were the case she shouldn't have ended up landing on her ass.  Plus her face in that panel has a seriously perterbed look to it.  She doesn't jive at all with me, but I don't feel her to be the real Kid.

hakkaino7 wrote: Speaking of not writing in the usual way...

Spoiler:

is the first post of this topic made by a fake Kris or was he just drunk or high... lol 

Was there something wrong with the way I wrote?
Everything seems in order with my normal way of deduction. I don't have much to work with, evidence wise, and I don't want to get too into details.

I thought about Jirokichi being Kid this time, but that would be kind of lame. I've yet to see any real evidence of that. Though this is only the first chapter. When Kid impersonates someone it's usually last minute. If he didn't send this first notice that would mean he only had three days to prepare his trick.
It is odd Lupin is in the vet for a few days now, but that must mean the dog is rather sick, opposed to just drugged or tranquilized. I think that dog might be legitimately sick. Kid would never do anything to hurt Lupin seriously enough to put him in harm.
I thought about Jirokichi asking Kogoro is he was a smoker. That could be something, but he did 'ask'. If he was really Kid he would of known right away. He wouldn't of had to ask. Though he is trying to get rid of the police quickly. Dangerous though to contact the chief inspector since they both knew each other from college. That will be something to look for.

Right now everything seems obvious. The maid stands out, because it's her first day and she bumped into Conan. The other workers have been on the job for a few days. The Servant is pretty obvious considering he was in the room, where the card was found. I already explained why I was suspicious of the bodyguard.
My theory there is that IF Kid had altered the sensitivity of the sensor to something heavier then your average cigarette. He wouldn't want Kogoro's cigarette to hit the floor and not set it off. I suspected that when he grabbed it he could of replaced it with a heavier cigarette, but at the moment that seems rather unlikely. Jirokichi would of noticed the problem when it was handed off.