Is Gosho losing his touch?

[secretbeauty101]

I don't mean to be so hard on the latest chapters, in fact I'm so pleased they came out early and were translated on time. But now with the direction the plot is going I'm starting to wonder if Gosho is actually losing his touch. For example, with amuro really being Bourbon, Vermouth playing the role as Scar Akai not just on the train but maybe on other occasions as well and conan AGAIN dragging his mother into the case in order for the disguise affects and eventhough it wasn't Heiji this time but had to be KID! who was involved in the related plot kinda shows to me that DC's climax will probably involve every single character in DC because it will be that phenomenon that every character will have to be involved when the Boss is revealed. I need to stop digressing, what my point is that everything since the start of Bourbon Arc has been so unbelievably predictable and anti-climatic that even though I don't want it to end I can't wait for the Boss to be revealed because that will probably be the least predictable element in the story especially since Chek hasn't managed to figure out who the boss is yet and neither have we.   

[Wakarimashita]

You can't read Chekhov's theories and then complain about it being too predictable. That's basically like reading spoilers and then complaining when reading the chapter that you already know what happens.

[secretbeauty101]

Actually I wouldn't read about people's theories of what could happen or is most likely to happen due to what's already happening. Even before I read chek's theories I already assumed that would be the case, if you go over gosho's previous cases there are a lot of obvious patterns there that are easy to follow in order to guess what would happen next whether I read chek's theories or not. Remember this manga was directed at young children but Gosho didn't expect it to last so long so he probably feels like he has to keep up with the fans who started reading his manga from a young age but are now grown up. However he is also aware that children are still reading his manga even though his now adult fans are still supporting him. Every author has a specific pattern they all follow, I believe that unless that pattern is changed or improved on slightly then the story loses its surprise element that it was able to deliver to the reader. This is why I think due to DC running for so long it is so easy to find that pattern and use it in order to prevent the surprise. However, the only surprise element that will really be affective I believe will be the boss because as Gosho stated in his interview that 'anokata' has made an appearance but with there being so many characters already and counting who is really able to figure who the boss is? This is how Gosho can maintain the ball in his court because no one not even Chek and I'm not saying that to sound rude or like I'm putting your theories to a test because you have been very right especially in the recent arcs but even that can't be found out by anyone which is what I like. I started watching and reading DC for the unpredictable-ness from other detective mangas, animes, heck even CSI and Murder She Wrote started to become predictable after a while but DC with all its going on wasn't so much. And with all the arcs going on and them being dragged for so long its so easy for the climax not to be so climatic as us we hoped it would be.

[Kor]

With all due respect to Chekhov's theories, though, many people also reached the arc's conclusions by themselves even without reading them. That said, reading her theories has definitely made people either sure of the conclusions they thought of, or really convinced other people who were on the fence about it (since Chekhov gathered all the clues and hints and put them for everyone to see).

Here's my thoughts about it. Rather than "losing his touch", Gosho simply repeated what he has already done hundreds of files ago with Vermouth. Once again in this arc, the main schtick here was disguises. Disguises for Akai, disguises for Bourbon and Amuro, etc. Gosho made us smart enough to pick up the hints and clues he drops every once in a while (in fact he dropped more hints this time than in the Vermouth arc), so if we figured out his system, is there any wonder that we figured out the whole thing (especially with him repeating the same thing)? Gosho made us smart about his system, but he didn't try to make it more sophisticated. Let's take for example an obvious throw off from the start of the arc - Okiya drinking Bourbon. The people who read/watched carefully the Vermouth arc should have seen that this is a throw off.
The problem in this arc was that it just wasn't too sophisticated (from what we have already seen) and relied on the concepts we have already seen in the Vermouth arc.

And you have the Gundam names which made it obvious as well, but I'd never know about the name scheme if it wasn't said by others  :P

[Kleene Onigiri]

I'm actually glad that Gosho uses "old" characters instead of bringing up new ones to explain things (and he already brought out Sera and Amuro). So another one to explain Vermouth's behavour/encountering her would be meh. And since Yukiko was friend with her in the past, it's logical that she'll appear because she is the only character that can say how Vermouth is without creating a new character.

Also, DC isn't supposed to be unpredictable :V
But the Gundam names got weak after a time... Okiyas name was hard to figure out (and I wouldn't be able to). Sera wasn't sooo obvious either, but amuro... Seems he got lazy with it at the end? :x

[sonoci]

If you read anything for a long time, patterns will emerge, that's just the way things go. Not to mention, as Kor stated, all stories have a system that goes along with them, and the longer you stay with a series, the more you understand the system. For example: in murder cases, if there is a straight up jerk, that person will either be the victim or someone that's framed. All past incidents relate to the current case. Fishing wire is deadly. Etc, etc... And think about this: if you rewatch an episode, how likely are you to notice things you didn't before? ...Why would that happen? You've been exposed to the pattern for that specific episode, thus your perception has been altered to help you notice more things. Random tidbit: perception is based on what you expect to see, not what you actually see. EX. if you see "Paris in the the spring" for a brief moment, you will read "Paris in the spring" because the extra "the" not only doesn't make sense, you didn't expect it. By extension, if your perception of DC is shaped by past experience of DC, you're going to notice more things, because you're expecting them.

With the knowledge of this system, cases become "easier". Hints and evidence are easier to spot and little things you wouldn't have noticed before you're able to see now. And above all else...if we're comparing the Vermouth arc here to the Bourbon arc, how many people on the forum have been reading since the Vermouth arc started? If the Bourbon arc started 5 years ago, I'd guess that the Vermouth arc was about 8 years ago. A lot of people came into the fandom around the Bourbon arc, and thus the Vermouth arc was already completed and out there. Therefore, for the Vermouth arc, there would have been a lot more readers that would read chapter after chapter without waiting and looking for the hints, thus making the conclusion more of a surprise. For the Bourbon arc, those who rushed through the Vermouth arc now have to wait and have a lot more time to figure things out.

Anything is "easier" if you have more time to think about it.

There's also the fact that was brought up earlier: DC is aimed at children. Nowadays there aren't going to be super complicated tricks and puzzles.

As for the Anokata arc...you do realize that Gosho is going to have to drop hints, right? In other words, to some people, it'll become "predictable". In that sense, I think some people have forgotten what DC is about. It's about detectives, deduction work, reasoning, and connecting pieces. The message is "There's no mystery that can't be solved" (tm Shinichi) not "Mysteries need to be complicated and unsolvable". Whether it's a hard mystery, a weird mystery, or an obvious mystery, they're all mysteries - and thus, they are all solvable. If they weren't, Gosho would be going against what Shinichi himself stated.

Long story short, if people are solving all of the mysteries and cases in DC, then "There's no mystery that can't be solved" has become true, and Gosho has accomplished a goal.

[Jecka]

**Applause to Sonoci**
I agree completely. Just as she said, if we become used to how things work, then, would be easier to understand, and possibly be able to reuse what we know to our own advantages.

I don't think there was any arc with that much action 

Again, I agree. So much stuff happened. I don't think even The Vermouth arc (176 - 435) had this much action and I thought that was pretty exciting

[El Huesudo II]

I'm actually glad that there's a certain level of predictability in DC. As Sonoci said, this is a mystery show, and mysteries are supossed to be solvable. Not to mention that solving a mystery by yourself means that you BECOME the detective of the story, and you pit your deduction against the writer. Succeeding in the solution, then, gives a certain satisfaction.

At least to me it does.

[Feb914]

seeing how smart his readers have, GA may be tempted to go missing and give hints of his whereabouts from his work for readers to solve (like one of a very old DC case).

[sonoci]

I'm actually glad that there's a certain level of predictability in DC. As Sonoci said, this is a mystery show, and mysteries are supossed to be solvable. Not to mention that solving a mystery by yourself means that you BECOME the detective of the story, and you pit your deduction against the writer. Succeeding in the solution, then, gives a certain satisfaction.

At least to me it does.

Exactly, and I personally believe that most mystery series strive to do this. That satisfaction is something that can't be given out, you've gotta work for it (in this case, do detective work)

[S.Vineyard]

I agree with the Vermouth arc.

I also remember 9 years ago. The main source for files was Jane's site and the avaiability of files wasn't as frequent as now. Plus, we had no wikis.

Oh, and another major thing is forgotten. The manga wasn't buyable in english. Now it is.

[secretbeauty101]

If you read anything for a long time, patterns will emerge, that's just the way things go. Not to mention, as Kor stated, all stories have a system that goes along with them, and the longer you stay with a series, the more you understand the system. For example: in murder cases, if there is a straight up jerk, that person will either be the victim or someone that's framed. All past incidents relate to the current case. Fishing wire is deadly. Etc, etc... And think about this: if you rewatch an episode, how likely are you to notice things you didn't before? ...Why would that happen? You've been exposed to the pattern for that specific episode, thus your perception has been altered to help you notice more things. Random tidbit: perception is based on what you expect to see, not what you actually see. EX. if you see "Paris in the the spring" for a brief moment, you will read "Paris in the spring" because the extra "the" not only doesn't make sense, you didn't expect it. By extension, if your perception of DC is shaped by past experience of DC, you're going to notice more things, because you're expecting them.

With the knowledge of this system, cases become "easier". Hints and evidence are easier to spot and little things you wouldn't have noticed before you're able to see now. And above all else...if we're comparing the Vermouth arc here to the Bourbon arc, how many people on the forum have been reading since the Vermouth arc started? If the Bourbon arc started 5 years ago, I'd guess that the Vermouth arc was about 8 years ago. A lot of people came into the fandom around the Bourbon arc, and thus the Vermouth arc was already completed and out there. Therefore, for the Vermouth arc, there would have been a lot more readers that would read chapter after chapter without waiting and looking for the hints, thus making the conclusion more of a surprise. For the Bourbon arc, those who rushed through the Vermouth arc now have to wait and have a lot more time to figure things out.

Anything is "easier" if you have more time to think about it.

There's also the fact that was brought up earlier: DC is aimed at children. Nowadays there aren't going to be super complicated tricks and puzzles.

As for the Anokata arc...you do realize that Gosho is going to have to drop hints, right? In other words, to some people, it'll become "predictable". In that sense, I think some people have forgotten what DC is about. It's about detectives, deduction work, reasoning, and connecting pieces. The message is "There's no mystery that can't be solved" (tm Shinichi) not "Mysteries need to be complicated and unsolvable". Whether it's a hard mystery, a weird mystery, or an obvious mystery, they're all mysteries - and thus, they are all solvable. If they weren't, Gosho would be going against what Shinichi himself stated.

Long story short, if people are solving all of the mysteries and cases in DC, then "There's no mystery that can't be solved" has become true, and Gosho has accomplished a goal.

Yes I agree with this and all, I mean things that are created have a certain structure from where they are started off from. Continuing from that start off point and then work down it is always very important to go back to where you started from to not forget you're goal. Gosho does this continuously but that is not what I'm complaining about. I'm saying this because although this was clearly the Bourbon arc what part of it was really Bourbon? Most of it was really Vermouth adding a few touches here and there. Unlike Gin who runs on his own orders (and anokata) Bourbon did not. For example, we even see in some cases where Vodka, Tequila and Pisco worked alone but not Bourbon. If Bourbon is such an important character in the BO then why didn't Gosho let him shine like he did with Vermouth, Gin, Chianti, Kir, Korn. If he is really supposed to be that great then how comes we hardly saw any action from HIM? He had the chance to shoot sherry, whereas Gin and even Vermouth wouldn't have thought twice about doing.

[fredinalnumber]

I think it's probably because this Bourbon Arc is pretty long as it needs to introduce many new characters (Scar Akai, Okiya, Sera, Amuro) and then some build-up (the case where Vermouth first appeared on a motorcycle in this arc, Sherry's photo was spread) before the final confrontation. The longer the arc, the more time we have to figure everything out and thus, less surprises.

Also remember that this is the first BO confrontation where Conan has predicted BO's plans and things work out perfectly according to his plan. Therefore, it's not supposed to be so difficult for the readers to predict what will happen in this confrontation as well. As many have said, it's a detective story which must allow readers to guess.

We've also been reading Conan for a long time and probably are not as easily fascinated as when we were younger. It could be that reading Conan have made us better detectives.

I also feel the same way but when I look at the facts, this is the case with the most number of reveals ever. We were told that Sera is Akai's sister, Amuro is Bourbon, Scar Akai is Bourbon (except on the train), Vermouth hasn't aged, Vermouth ordered the software, Vermouth has an interest in keeping Conan and Haibara unknown to BO, the content of Sherry's tape, and more. We were also given hints that Akai is alive (bulletproof vest with blood-releasing mechanism, his appearance on the train) and is Okiya (working together with Yukiko, and last page). They may be predictable but we need Gosho's confirmation.

If you read anything for a long time, patterns will emerge, that's just the way things go. Not to mention, as Kor stated, all stories have a system that goes along with them, and the longer you stay with a series, the more you understand the system. For example: in murder cases, if there is a straight up jerk, that person will either be the victim or someone that's framed. All past incidents relate to the current case. Fishing wire is deadly. Etc, etc... And think about this: if you rewatch an episode, how likely are you to notice things you didn't before? ...Why would that happen? You've been exposed to the pattern for that specific episode, thus your perception has been altered to help you notice more things. Random tidbit: perception is based on what you expect to see, not what you actually see. EX. if you see "Paris in the the spring" for a brief moment, you will read "Paris in the spring" because the extra "the" not only doesn't make sense, you didn't expect it. By extension, if your perception of DC is shaped by past experience of DC, you're going to notice more things, because you're expecting them.

With the knowledge of this system, cases become "easier". Hints and evidence are easier to spot and little things you wouldn't have noticed before you're able to see now. And above all else...if we're comparing the Vermouth arc here to the Bourbon arc, how many people on the forum have been reading since the Vermouth arc started? If the Bourbon arc started 5 years ago, I'd guess that the Vermouth arc was about 8 years ago. A lot of people came into the fandom around the Bourbon arc, and thus the Vermouth arc was already completed and out there. Therefore, for the Vermouth arc, there would have been a lot more readers that would read chapter after chapter without waiting and looking for the hints, thus making the conclusion more of a surprise. For the Bourbon arc, those who rushed through the Vermouth arc now have to wait and have a lot more time to figure things out.

Anything is "easier" if you have more time to think about it.

There's also the fact that was brought up earlier: DC is aimed at children. Nowadays there aren't going to be super complicated tricks and puzzles.

As for the Anokata arc...you do realize that Gosho is going to have to drop hints, right? In other words, to some people, it'll become "predictable". In that sense, I think some people have forgotten what DC is about. It's about detectives, deduction work, reasoning, and connecting pieces. The message is "There's no mystery that can't be solved" (tm Shinichi) not "Mysteries need to be complicated and unsolvable". Whether it's a hard mystery, a weird mystery, or an obvious mystery, they're all mysteries - and thus, they are all solvable. If they weren't, Gosho would be going against what Shinichi himself stated.

Long story short, if people are solving all of the mysteries and cases in DC, then "There's no mystery that can't be solved" has become true, and Gosho has accomplished a goal.

Yes I agree with this and all, I mean things that are created have a certain structure from where they are started off from. Continuing from that start off point and then work down it is always very important to go back to where you started from to not forget you're goal. Gosho does this continuously but that is not what I'm complaining about. I'm saying this because although this was clearly the Bourbon arc what part of it was really Bourbon? Most of it was really Vermouth adding a few touches here and there. Unlike Gin who runs on his own orders (and anokata) Bourbon did not. For example, we even see in some cases where Vodka, Tequila and Pisco worked alone but not Bourbon. If Bourbon is such an important character in the BO then why didn't Gosho let him shine like he did with Vermouth, Gin, Chianti, Kir, Korn. If he is really supposed to be that great then how comes we hardly saw any action from HIM? He had the chance to shoot sherry, whereas Gin and even Vermouth wouldn't have thought twice about doing.

For some reasons Bourbon wanted Sherry alive, that's why he didn't shoot her. And I don't think Gosho doesn't want to let Bourbon shine. It's just not the time yet. Remember that he wants to start investigating Akai's death again. There might soon be a confrontation between him and Akai, which could be his chance to truly shine.

[sonoci]

For some reasons Bourbon wanted Sherry alive, that's why he didn't shoot her. And I don't think Gosho doesn't want to let Bourbon shine. It's just not the time yet. Remember that he wants to start investigating Akai's death again. There might soon be a confrontation between him and Akai, which could be his chance to truly shine.

+10

I'm a bit confused, scretybeauty101

In your first post, you said this:

...my point is that everything since the start of Bourbon Arc has been so unbelievably predictable and anti-climatic that even though I don't want it to end I can't wait for the Boss to be revealed because that will probably be the least predictable element in the story especially since Chek hasn't managed to figure out who the boss is yet and neither have we.   

And yet just now you said:

...but that is not what I'm complaining about. I'm saying this because although this was clearly the Bourbon arc what part of it was really Bourbon? Most of it was really Vermouth adding a few touches here and there. Unlike Gin who runs on his own orders (and anokata) Bourbon did not. For example, we even see in some cases where Vodka, Tequila and Pisco worked alone but not Bourbon. If Bourbon is such an important character in the BO then why didn't Gosho let him shine like he did with Vermouth, Gin, Chianti, Kir, Korn. If he is really supposed to be that great then how comes we hardly saw any action from HIM?

My reply strictly dealt with your first post - the unpredictability issue - but now you just said that what was in your first post is "not what you were complaining about". I can't exactly reply to a complaint that wasn't touched upon. As much as I'm clairvoyant with my comics and such, I'm not a mindreader. If the posts on here don't represent what you're thinking, then I can't understand.

Anyway, I guess I'll move on to what the point apparently actually was.

Some pretty recent spoilers below, for anyone not completely caught up on the manga (though I'm not sure why you'd be reading this far if you were avoiding spoilers )

I'm saying this because although this was clearly the Bourbon arc what part of it was really Bourbon?

Walking around as Scar!Akai, doing research on Akai's death, saving Conan as Scar!Akai, luring out Sera, seeing who knew that Akai was alive (watching reactions of people that knew Akai), becoming Kogoro's apprentice, etc.

He actually did quite a lot.

Most of it was really Vermouth adding a few touches here and there.

I would personally say it'd be more farfetched if Bourbon was yet another master of disguise. Having Vermouth help out only made sense. He never spoke as Scar!Akai, and his plan involved walking around as Akai to gauge people's reactions. I would say calling only one aspect "most of it" would be a little out there. He went to Vermouth because he knew that she was capable of disguise and getting the files that he wanted to see.

Unlike Gin who runs on his own orders (and anokata) Bourbon did not. For example, we even see in some cases where Vodka, Tequila and Pisco worked alone but not Bourbon.

Having the BO be shown to only be people who "play by their own rules" would be boring. There's no order that way in the organization and from a story standpoint...it's just the same thing, over and over again. As for the "Bourbon doesn't work alone" thing, we've only technically seen him on one mission. Vermouth did the make-up, yes, but other than that, Bourbon mostly ran around on his own. It wasn't until the train case that they were truly working together.

If Bourbon is such an important character in the BO then why didn't Gosho let him shine like he did with Vermouth, Gin, Chianti, Kir, Korn.

He's only important because of the focus. Otherwise, he's probably a bit of a lower ranking member. And...hold up here, Chianti and Korn? I'm...confused again, how exactly did those two "shine"? All we know about them is they like to snipe things. ...End of story. :V

If he is really supposed to be that great then how comes we hardly saw any action from HIM?

As Gin said, Bourbon's a detective. His game field is that of thought, not violence or big action scenes. Not to mention, we haven't actually gotten to the climax yet. We can't expect the same thing from every BO character. Gin doesn't get along with him, and now I can see why: Bourbon is more like a fox. He's sly and uses tricks to get to what he wants, rather than bursting forward with a gun like Gin would. We also haven't been given Bourbon's true face and/or thoughts until now. For the Vermouth arc and the Kir arc, we knew what they looked like and what they were thinking. That's why we knew more about them and likely why there was more blow up action: there wasn't much intrigue in who they were or what they looked like. With Bourbon, he didn't technically say anything for 5 years. How are we supposed to get action from a person we don't know and who's not on the camera that much? For all we know, he crashed a plane and blew up a bridge on the side.

What I'm saying is: Bourbon is different. He's not supposed to be another cookie-cutter BO character. ...and I like that. 

[MagicianUndertheMoonlight]

I found the Bourbon arc to be less entertaining than the other BO related arcs. I don't read Chekhov's theories (at least not before the fact) and I wasn't very surprised with how things turned out. Maybe it's that we all have been reading Gosho for years and kind of have learned to pick up on his cues that were not obvious to us when we first started reading. It's kind of like musicians. They have favorite themes and motifs they're known for, and a lot of what they do are innovations on these themes.