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Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 16th, 2009, 7:51 am
by H...Haibara
Thoughts?
I for one need to read them again...
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 16th, 2009, 9:28 am
by mitsuhiko2
Well, it's not Koumei. I would estimate a 30% probability that Koumei will later be seen alive. It seems reasonable to me that the first victim was killed in revenge for Aoi's death, which was probably intentionally caused by Akashi in one way or another. The red paint was probably to cover up a dying message as insinuated by Koumei before he died, but I don't think that was the case in the second murder.
The fact that there was only one chair, and that the other suspects were not informed that there were two in the original murder, seems to imply to me at least that the second murder was by a different person who was unfamiliar with the first. Possibly trying to take revenge for Akashi... but no, then Akashi's original crime wouldn't have been revealed if his murderer was dead. In that case, then, it may have been the same person, trying to lead the police astray by giving the red wall a meaning of its own.
That being the case, we may actually not have a dying message... unless the chairs were the message somehow...
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 16th, 2009, 11:56 am
by Nanatsu no Ko
I get the feeling that the first murder was done by two people. I'm not sure whether the second victim was involved or just knew something, though. And I'm not sure what to think about Koumei now. I assume the arson means that someone knew they had left evidence behind (or was convinced by Koumei there was evidence left behind).
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 16th, 2009, 3:17 pm
by mitsuhiko2
Nanatsu no Ko wrote:
I get the feeling that the first murder was done by two people. I'm not sure whether the second victim was involved or just knew something, though. And I'm not sure what to think about Koumei now. I assume the arson means that someone knew they had left evidence behind (or was convinced by Koumei there was evidence left behind).
That's a good point. It may also fit in with the "message under the paint" theory though; if the police were to carefully strip the paint off, they could uncover the message which reveals the victim's identity.
But something doesn't feel right. I'm not sure Akeshi died in that room. He should've been able to make it through the window at least... and the listening device should've been discovered relatively quickly. I mean, when you're locked in a room and faced with a slow death from starvation, you'd be trying to find a way out, right? You'd be looking over everything in the room to find something to help escape. If I were in his place, I'd have disconnected the listening device in hopes that the culprit would come find me.
In addition, throwing the brushes out the window to cause someone to check on me isn't that good of an explanation. Finally, the only fingerprints on the spray can belonged to a police officer(d'oh!), implying that the original user wore gloves or some other means to cover his fingerprints. The victim would have no reason to do this, so it was most likely the culprit who did so.
The doorknob had no fingerprints on it--if the culprit had been locked in the room to die, he would have at least tried to turn the doorknob. Again, his fingerprints weren't there. There are two options--one, the victim's body was transferred to the room after death(unlikely, considering the signature--though that *might* be faked...); or two, the culprit returned and wiped any fingerprints he could find while he was there.
Again, the fingerprints on the spray can were wiped, implying that the culprit used the spray can--but for what? The wall is the only area with red spray paint. Therefore, we can conclude that at least part of the paint was from the culprit. It is probable that all of the paint was from the culprit, covering up a message written by the culprit. Since red paint was used, and the signature is written in blood, it seems reasonable to conclude that the dying message was also written in blood, and covered up with the spray can.
This explanation so far fails to take into account the black and white chairs--or why they are nailed to the floor. However, it fits with the death of Shirou, as the culprit also painted that wall red. This was presumably for a different reason, as Shirou had no chance to leave a dying message in blood; I would assume, as Koumei did, that it was intended to connect Shirou's murder to Akeshi's.
So in conclusion, both incidents of spray-painting were by the culprit, not the victim. The victim's secret message lay underneath the paint and was presumably destroyed by the fire.
Secondly, since the culprit did return, the listening device was probably planted by a third party. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be the murdered Shirou, but I don't think there's any other evidence to connect him with the device. If it was Shirou, that would provide a motive for the murder--Shirou figured out who the perpetrator was, but didn't tell the police for some reason. The murderer caught on; perhaps Shirou was trying to blackmail him, I don't know. He killed Shirou, and then painted the wall in order to mislead the police from the original clue.
Just thinking.

Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 17th, 2009, 1:36 am
by Last_Resort
There was no hammer and nails with the stuff out the window right?
So that means the culprit may have prepared part or all of the setup shown ie red wall black chair red chair broken window and painting materials out the window.
Or am i forgetting something?
Ahh i am thinking to much and its late and i still need to finish my paper WHY AM I HERE?
Anyway how does the above sound? Did i just repeat what the guys above said?
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 17th, 2009, 11:50 am
by mitsuhiko2
1. The hammer and nails question is a good point. If the chairs were also placed by the culprit, then the victim's only dying message was under the paint. But why were the chairs there like that? What reasoning would lead someone to construct such an odd arrangement? Perhaps the chairs were like that before Akeshi died in there... if the culprit did it afterwards, he'd have had to wait for the paint to dry, and he'd probably have simply disposed of the hammer through the window like the brushes.
2. It seems from the arsonist's thoughts that his main intent was on eliminating Koumei. Most likely, he was worried that Koumei as portrayed in the novel would be his undoing. And he was right--Koumei cracked the red wall mystery, at least he seems to have.
3. Shirou's financial problems and unexpected resolution, along with his planned trip to Italy, lend credence to the blackmail hypothesis.
4. Shirou was apparently in contact with Shuusaku prior to the unfortunate incident in an attempt to borrow money from him... that could be significant.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 17th, 2009, 10:59 pm
by Last_Resort
In response to the above by mitsuhiko2. i think i kinda didnt explain myself properly
1) I think it is likely that the chairs were set up like that in advance and so the wall and paint were also.
2) How did the arsonist know koumei was at the house? I agree that he would have wanted to kill him since he is a skilled detective and therefore a threat but what i meant before is that the arsonist didn't know koumei was at the house and so i think that he went there to set the place on fire and just got lucky that he could kill (?) koumei at the same time.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 18th, 2009, 6:04 pm
by mitsuhiko2
Last_Resort wrote:
In response to the above by mitsuhiko2. i think i kinda didnt explain myself properly
1) I think it is likely that the chairs were set up like that in advance and so the wall and paint were also.
2) How did the arsonist know koumei was at the house? I agree that he would have wanted to kill him since he is a skilled detective and therefore a threat but what i meant before is that the arsonist didn't know koumei was at the house and so i think that he went there to set the place on fire and just got lucky that he could kill (?) koumei at the same time.
1. I agree about the chairs, but I disagree about the paint; that was most likely to cover up the real dying message written on the wall in blood.
2. Good point, I agree completely.
3. I suspect that Akashi's murderer was Naoki; some third party discovered this fact via the listening device, and held it over Naoki-san's head. When Naoki thought that his fingerprints had been discovered, he called that person to warn him that they were on the verge of being discovered. That person then came over to Naoki's house, strangled him, and then arranged the scene to look like the first murder--albeit imperfectly, as he only knew that Akashi died in a chair facing a re spray-painted wall; he hadn't been told about the two chairs. Then he headed to the mansion to burn it down and eliminate any remaining evidence, discovered Koumei, and--realizing his intellectual prowess from the novel--decides to do away with him as well.
Thus far, as far as I can tell, the culprit could be any of the three remaining suspects. We'll have to wait for 685 to figure out anything further.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 20th, 2009, 12:05 am
by Last_Resort
Thats an interesting theory i have to think about that.
Akashi's fingerprints weren't on the painting materials... So either koumei wiped them off and therefore is in on the crime ( which i think... want to think is the case but the more i think about the less i believe it) or didnt paint it.
Ohh and guys IF you are ever murdered and actually have time to come up with a complex hidden dying message please make a regular one first actually make a couple and hide them in various places and then make another message. Jeeze lol
On a more serious note would such a message ever hold up in court i mean you can take it to mean many things. No right its just to give the police a lead, right?
Btw whats with this reported attack site, the only time i ever got that was when it was incorrect. ( only once before and it was a anime/manga related site too... coincidence?)
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 20th, 2009, 12:46 pm
by mitsuhiko2
Last_Resort wrote:
Thats an interesting theory i have to think about that.
Akashi's fingerprints weren't on the painting materials... So either koumei wiped them off and therefore is in on the crime ( which i think... want to think is the case but the more i think about the less i believe it) or didnt paint it.
Slight correction here, Akeshi's fingerprints were on the brushes that were thrown out the window, but not on the spray can.
Ohh and guys IF you are ever murdered and actually have time to come up with a complex hidden dying message please make a regular one first actually make a couple and hide them in various places and then make another message. Jeeze lol
On a more serious note would such a message ever hold up in court i mean you can take it to mean many things. No right its just to give the police a lead, right?
It is my firm belief that the victim made a perfectly ordinary dying message on the wall, with blood from his finger. The murderer covered it over with red spray paint.
Btw whats with this reported attack site, the only time i ever got that was when it was incorrect. ( only once before and it was a anime/manga related site too... coincidence?)
It may be coincidence. The site was hacked, as far as I know, so it may have been the same person--or it may not.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 20th, 2009, 7:03 pm
by ElevenClovers
I haven't read the translation yet, but I wonder what the significance of Koumei using the different kanji for 'Koumei' than the one for his name in his message is..

Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 20th, 2009, 8:46 pm
by mitsuhiko2
"Koumei" is a different way to pronounce his real name, which is "Takaaki" or something like that if I remember correctly.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 21st, 2009, 12:34 pm
by Undone
mitsuhiko2 wrote:
Well, it's not Koumei. I would estimate a 30% probability that Koumei will later be seen alive.
I would give a 70~90% chance that he will survive.Specially because I can't escape the feeling he is bourbon...I recall conan saying something about "a detective-like guy" and it just fits him perfectly.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 21st, 2009, 2:12 pm
by mitsuhiko2
Undone wrote:
mitsuhiko2 wrote:
Well, it's not Koumei. I would estimate a 30% probability that Koumei will later be seen alive.
I would give a 70~90% chance that he will survive.Specially because I can't escape the feeling he is bourbon...I recall conan saying something about "a detective-like guy" and it just fits him perfectly.
lol... I'm not sure about Bourbon, but I later revised my original estimate(in my head, anyway). IIRC, he comes back in the next chapter... whenever that comes out.
Re: Files 683 and 684 (Spoilers)
Posted: March 22nd, 2009, 1:26 am
by sstimson
After reading the latest Translation I think I know ' who done it '
Use a color wheel if necessary
White is the reverse of black
? is the reverse of red
then find of who the ? is and you got your killer
Later