FILE.647 English Manga (Amnesia, Real Or Fake?)

[Hazy?!]

Yeah, and this series of files will probably be really long too.  We're going to get a lot of stuff to think about. 

[Shinran]

I don't believe that there's a fake Shinichi at hand here.

Quoted directly from Holmes' Study before the translation -

To debunk the fake Shinichi are the facts I'm afraid. The likely hood the Shinchi that was found in the river is about 99%.

Remember Conan fell into the river, and Shinichi was found in the river naked. Even if this was some fake Shinichi why would he be nude in the very same river Conan fell into.
I'd like to go into more details about the case, but I'll need a little better quality RAW.
From what I saw I can see some odd points.
From the room I saw that place is totally thrashed, with the exception of that group picture. That young boy in the picture looks like the same one we saw in town yell at Kazuha. That explains how the boy would think of Shinichi is a lair. I know it was only a year ago, but the boy doesn't look much different.
There appears to be a blood splatter on the steps and then bloody footprints that walk out to a balcony and then a marking with a body. That almost seems to imply someone was stabbed on the stairs, carried out to the balcony, and then dropped off, but why toss a man off a balcony if you just stabbed them?

Now then, Shinichi is speaking as if he's still Conan, with much politeness. Coincidence? I think not. NOw about the case, I talked with Kris with this, which helped him deduce this:

I do have one critique to add though. I may be wrong on this. The term "Force Double-Suicide" doesn't seem to imply what everyone is talking about. It sounds more like the term "Murder-Suicide" applies. "Force Double-Suicide" implies a third person was there and made them kill themselves. "Double-Suicide" is off too, because that implies the wife killed herself.

Looks like my deduction of the crime scene was pretty close from just looking at the RAW. Someone was stabbed on the stairs. I was wrong about the idea of then carrying the body from the stairs out and dropping it off. In my defense I came to the conclusion because I didn't see a body marker on the stairs. My bad. (bops self on head)
I am very curious about how this could of been a murder-suicide when the weapon was never found. That reeks of murder.
There is also the bloody footprints being the same size as the footprints found outside, but then why don't the bloody prints lead to the door?
Was there blood on the slippers that might of been found on the body of the village head that was found down the cliff? Perhaps the killer (if there was one) took there slippers off at the the veranda to frame the village head.

Another thought about the crime scene. The prints lead to the asphalt road. Wish I knew the layout of the house better. This implies one of two things. One, the person was local walked home. Two, they had a car or bike waiting on the road and they parked away.
If this was some attempt to frame up a murder-suicide why would they leave prints outside that could also be easily found? Entering through the back door implies either you are unknown to the family, or you just didn't want to be noticed.

I foresee one HUGE problem. It's the reporter, Kawauchi Misato, if she's not the culprit at the end of this she could write a story about Shinichi and expose him. I mean, why is she there if she's not local? She just happened to turn up the same time as Shinichi and the others for a story that's over a year old?

Makoto's friend, Hikawa Moegi, she said it was impossible to not hear from him for six months. That's kind of an odd statement. Could it be he had some illness that required some kind of repeated treatment? It seems unlikely that this "Forest Man" could be Makoto. This person seems to have long light hair, and the Mokoto in the picture had short black hair. The average growth rate of hair is about half an inch a month, but I may be over analyzing a manga.
Matoko is adopted. Doesn't seem too odd if he had dyed his hair to fit in. Seems unlikely though.

And this.

As far as how Shinichi could of gotten this wrong. I think part of the key would be in the misstatement about the victims medical condition. If Shinichi was told wrong that the village head had cancer when it was really a treatable tumor that could lead to the idea of a murder-suicide.
That still doesn't explain the missing knife and jewels. I'm wondering if what was in that bag from the first chapter is the murder weapon and the missing jewelry.

I'm trying to figure out of these people who could be the one who mailed Shinichi. The two girls seem to be the most likely suspects. The reporter, Kawauchi Misato, seems like a likely suspect. Being from Tokyo she is sure to of heard of Kudo Shinichi, and also know that he's been missing for a while too. Even the one reporter way back in Volume 14 File 9 knew about Shinichi's disappearance. Also seems likely She could of heard of Hatori Heiji and their connection. Heiji could of been reported about in solving the case at Shinichi's school back when Shinichi got his body back last time.
She just doesn't seem very surprised to see Shinichi, but she just got there. Also why is she there? What brought her back to this town a year later? I'd be curious to ask her that and see if she was sent a letter like Heiji.
Somehow seems odd though.

Another likely suspect would be Hikawa Moegi. If she went to college in Tokyo she might know Shinichi isn't around, but not as likely she would know of Heiji.
Was interesting that she knew which photo Ran was holding. Though it's likely she could of been in that room before and knew it was the only one not thrashed.
She does help us know how Shinichi was brought in. Makoto was the first suspect since he was the one who found the body. He must of called Shinichi in to help clear his name.
The room tells me something. That after stabbing the wife this person destroyed everything in this room, but couldn't bring them self to touch that picture of the family. That speaks to caring. That picture meant something to them.

Only thing we really know about the police officer, Shiroyama Kazuma, is that he's lived in this town since he was a child. We know that because he said he heard the tale of the Forest-Man from when he was a kid.

This Forest-Man looks like he's wearing a kimono. Notice in the last panel how the shirt is folded. It's like he's wearing ninja clothes.

I still stand by my statement that the term "Forced Double-Suicide" doesn't apply to this kind of scene. At least to what Shinichi concluded a year ago. Suicide is a person who kills them self. Double-suicide is when two people kill them self. When you force suicide it's similar to a scene of. "kill yourself or I'll kill your child." If a person attacks and kills someone to make it look like suicide you don't call that forced-suicide. That's murder.
What Shinichi seemed to imply a year ago is that the village head murdered his wife and then took his own life after destroying the room. That's classic "murder-suicide". I know the Japanese term applies, but the Japanese also call apartments, "mansions".

People keep making a big deal how Ran isn't fawning all over Shinichi, but worried about Conan. I don't see what's so odd. Yeah she cares for Shinichi, but he's there and knows how he's doing. I think anyone would be worried about a missing seven year old and knowing if they were alright.

And this.

I've been thinking this over and I think I'm onto an idea. Hear me out of this. I can't solve the case with this, but I may be onto solving the mystery of who sent Heiji that letter. At least with the evidence I have with me right now.
I'm also thinking about how did Makoto know Shinichi enough to ask him to get involved in this case a year ago. What if he was one of Shinichi's upper class men?

From what we know Heiji was sent a letter to pass on to Shinichi. It would of been one thing to write to Heiji, another high school detective, to show up Shinichi, but this person seem to know that Heiji knew Shinichi enough to pass on that letter.
I thought back and there has only been one time both Shinichi and Heiji have been seen together in a large enough crowd that it would be hard to control. That would of been during the Desperation arc of the murder during the highs school play in Volume 26 File 3.

Shinichi's involvement in the case was kept secret officially so that means it couldn't of gotten out in the papers. Even if Heiji was in any reports that's a stretch too far to assume he's friends with Shinichi since that is his school.

I'm going through the suspects we have right now. If Shinichi's involvement was kept out of the papers the reporter seems out of the question. If the reporter was in the crowd during that scene why would she of kept the story of the missing high school detective reappearance a secret. They couldn't of stopped her.

I'm thinking more and more about Moegi. If she suspected that Matoko's disappearance is involved in the murder of his family. That's motive to look deeper into the mystery. More so then the reporter, but we know little about her right now.
Moegi seems to be likely she could of been in the crowd and seen Heiji with Shinichi. If Makoto is Shinichi's upper class man, then it's also likely Moegi could of been as well. Maybe she went to see a play at her old school during a festival, or because she heard Ran; Shinichi's friend; was a star in this play thinking he might of shown up.
It doesn't sound out of line when you consider the suspects in that case at the play were also graduates of Teitan High School.
I don't have much evidence to this, but it seems like she's the most likely suspect of sending the letter right now with the evidence at hand.

I look forward to the next chapter and the information it gives.

So we can't talk much about this case or the truth about if it's Shinichi or not until the next file I suppose, and I believe the mysterious figure in the end of the chapter might be Matoko, actually. So, any comments?

[tepiestar]

i love kristantei's deductions.  they're always so thorough.  and fun to read.  probably the only reason i ever visit holmes study.