ESPIONAGE: Round Four (Spy & Informants Win!!)

[RoboG55]

Phase Results: 1:00~2:00 PM EDT Daily

dumytru counts votes sent by 1pm EDT and usually posts the results shortly after.

Robo, interesting of you to confess to being responsible for causing the tie.
I mean, tallied all announced votes here (viewtopic.php?f=30&t=12198&start=225#p804894) and then said I'll vote Jd-. So you should have known that voting Fujiwara would likely cause the worst-case scenario - a tie.

Nobody ever said that googleearth disrupted the tie in day 1. So it can only have been Ansai not on this thread. I realise askimg you and Ansai not to talk about the game at all is a little too much if you live together (I don't know if that's the case, but you did say you were brothers), but basing decisions on that is definely cheating.

I'll post more after talking to dumytru.

Oh, okay. Ansai is usually really really mad at me and won't talk to me much anyway. And just saying, it's just siblings since I'm a girl XD

Well, it was part random anyway. I was going to vote for that anyway since I have no idea what to do

[miakakiri]

OK, here is my timing problem. It is nearly 4am and I am on my way to bed. (Yeah, I stayed up a bit late, I wanted to get set for the Lightning Temple because I need Archi's help with that.) Phase change is 1pm. There's no info or suggestions at the moment, so I can't really vote right now. By the time I get up 'tomorrow' it'll be close to phase change again.....

[Togop]

It's not like there haven't been suggestions.
Last day, Jd- suggested Fujiwara, Fuji suggested Jd-, and I suggested googleearth or Yuri.
Today, we have some evidence against Robo, too, as outlined in the previous posts - namely, voting to get a tie.

Anyway, what do you think about Robo (including Fuji and Jd-)? I mean, while she voted in a way that caused a tie at a time she could have known she's risking a tie, she actually confessed to it when asked. I'm currently inclined to believe her. Her claim that she was told (I'm assuming by Ansai) that bash messed up the tie day 1 seems genuine. It's not something I'd say if I was trying to lie. I can't be certain, of course, ot could be a very crafty lie.

For now I plan to vote googleearth again.

[Jellitto]

I'm also inclined to believe Robo. The fact that she confessed feels something the Spy would not do, especially when I even gave an opportunity to not confess. Also, she confessed almost breaking the rules on day 3 too, which made me think her as a civilian then.

To me Jd- and Fujiwara seemed both civilians but it's of course impossible to be sure.

I would like to know why googleearth though.

[Jd-]

It's not like there haven't been suggestions.
Last day, Jd- suggested Fujiwara, Fuji suggested Jd-, and I suggested googleearth or Yuri.
Today, we have some evidence against Robo, too, as outlined in the previous posts - namely, voting to get a tie.

Anyway, what do you think about Robo (including Fuji and Jd-)? I mean, while she voted in a way that caused a tie at a time she could have known she's risking a tie, she actually confessed to it when asked. I'm currently inclined to believe her. Her claim that she was told (I'm assuming by Ansai) that bash messed up the tie day 1 seems genuine. It's not something I'd say if I was trying to lie. I can't be certain, of course, ot could be a very crafty lie.

For now I plan to vote googleearth again.

Just responding to say not to wait on me to make any deductions or arrange a vote. I'm sticking with the agreement to not get directly involved for this phase and let the other civilians sort it out; you already know where I stand with my billions of posts and the tie of course didn't change that, so it's on you guys on how you want this game to go.

In case you're curious as to my reasoning in accepting Fujiwara's proposal to not duke it out for another phase, it's two-fold. Reason #1: It saves me the time of trying to convince people of my position that, if they haven't come over to my side by now, they never will. Reason #2: I am genuinely curious how it will turn out without the two of us involved and think it'll be dramatic, assuming it's not just Togop talking to himself all day with everyone else inactive; it may also have the side effect of offering an example of how civilians should proceed in the future.

Good luck, I'll be voting with whatever the civilian push is.

[Togop]

I would like to know why googleearth though.

I was waiting for Jd- to post, but I'll go ahead and post this now.
I'll consider two different trains of thought so far.

First, the Yuri-Ja- line
Some facts:
1) Yuri suggested a tie vote
2) Jd- took the initiative and organized it.
3) Yuri volunteered after we had two volunteers. She said she hadn't noticed - possible, but there's no way to know.
4) Jd- claimed her to be civillian because of that, based on statements I find false.
5) I pointed that out here viewtopic.php?f=30&t=12198&start=135#p804377 and it was ignored
6) I pointed it out a second time the next day and then Jd- backtracked partially
7) Yuri and bash was protecting Jd- and Fujiwara day 2
8) Yuri ignored my question for her today.

Now, I was thinking about several possibilities at the beginning of this day (NOT ordered based on likelyhood):
1) Yuri is the spy. She used the tie to attempt to estabilish herself civillian, and informant Jd- was trying to protect her.
2) Yuri is not the spy. Informant Jd- tried to pin the crimes on her by defending her using false statements.
3) Jd- is not the informant, and he had indeed misremembered the situation as he claimed.

Now, there are some problems with each of these three possibilities (though at least one must be correct).
1) If Yuri was the spy, Jd- would have either backtracked as soon as I pointed out the problems in his logic, or would have never backtracked. In reality, he backtracked the second time I pointed them out.
2) Well, that's exactly what Jd- did last round, and I'm not sure he'd repeat it again. If 2 is correct, though, that doesn't help much. If Jd-'s the informant, he hasn't been protecting anyont but Yuri so far, and as such in this case I don't have strong leads to the spy. A weak one would be that, as I said, bash was protecting Jd- day 2 on the grounds that Jd- "felt very Jd-" to him here (viewtopic.php?f=30&t=12198&start=150#p804484).
3) In that case, I'd once again wonder why did Jd- ignore me the first time and backtracked only the second time.

[Jellitto]

So, are you saying that googleearth (the Spy) protected Jd- (Informant) day 2, as well as Fujiwara who would be innocent in this case, then on day 3 he wanted to arrest his Informant to appear civilian.

I admit his accusation of Jd- came a bit out of nowhere but I'm not really convinced about that. If you meant something else, then correct me.

[Togop]

Well, I'm not really convinced either, but do you have another suggestion?

[Jellitto]

Well, as you saw of my vote, I had suspicions of you. It was also to not to make a tie after you said you voted for Jd-, so I voted someone I wanted. But as your theory on googleearth, my theory on you isn't really convincing either.

In that post you quoted, you also said Yuri was suspicious. So what makes Yuri less suspicious now (or then)?

And what do you think about that post seed12 posted? I doubt we're going to hear from him again.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

RMed
That you don't focus on me as I'm town and leave bash out of your reasoning as well as I'm pretty sure he's town too?
But then what I say is disregarded anyway so meh.

*gives up and sits waiting for phase change*

[Togop]

His post, if believed, invalidates any theories based on Jd- or Fuji being informant.
That could mean many things, including:
- seed's a civillian who wants us to think Jd- or Fuji is the spy (or civillian, but I personally think Jd- is bad, so spy if not inf).
- seed's actually the informant and wants to cast suspicion on Jd- or Fuji (as I said, I think that if he's telling the truth, then Jd- is the spy).
- seed's actually the informant and wants to invalidate the current theories based om Jd-/Fuji being informant (namely, my suspicions of googleearth).
- seed got bored

As for why bash and not Yuri - well, as I said I confronted Jd- about his illogical defense of Yuri twice and he backtracked the second time. I think if he was an informant protecting her he'd have either backtracked the first time, or not at all. And in the end, I have to choose one.

[Togop]

RMed
That you don't focus on me as I'm town and leave bash out of your reasoning as well as I'm pretty sure he's town too?
But then what I say is disregarded anyway so meh.

*gives up and sits waiting for phase change*

Disregarded? Not really. It's just that so far you haven't said anything essential during day 3 and 4. Of course if all your arguments are "I'm pretty sure" (as they are in the post quoted) they aren't going to sound convincing.

[Jellitto]

- seed's actually the informant and wants to invalidate the current theories based om Jd-/Fuji being informant (namely, my suspicions of googleearth).

So that's what you think is the most probable? Also, you don't think he's the Spy?

@Yuri I won't disregard anything someone has to say at this point, we need as much opinions and discussion as possible now.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

That's just it, I have nothing to say that Jd- didn't already point out, but we tie voted so I don't really se the point here. You guys won't listen anyway, so what's the point?

[Jellitto]

If you don't have anything yo say, then you don't say anything. I'm just someone who doesn't like to give up and I want to have good last day of this round.

And I'm not going to vote googleearth just because Togop said he's going to.