ESPIONAGE: Round Two (Detective and Civilians Win)

[shinichi'sapprentice]

The game will end with either a Spy & Informant or a Civilian & Detective victory.
If the Spy is arrested, the game ends immediately and the Detective and civilians win. If the Detective is executed by the Spy or is arrested in the daily vote, the civilians then have only two phases remaining to find the Spy and arrest them before they escape.If less than half of the original starting players remain, however, only one phase will remain before the Spy escapes. If only the Spy and Detective remain at the end with no other civilians still in play, the Spy wins automatically.

this. is why i boldly challenged the spy in my last post. 14 players remain. if the detective dies, we have utmost two phases left, at least right now, to find the spy and arrest him. if the detective dies tomorrow, the next day, or the next day, then one phase left.

i'm more inclined to believe that the detective is in my list. that's why i'm puzzled because that then gives me a list of seven people to choose from of who the spy is. but it is also possible that both are in my list again as well.

*i will be home eight hours after day 6 ends/day 7 begins. i will constantly check back from time to time. in case this is my last day, good luck fellow civilians.

[Fujiwara]

Well, I don't believe Raiden is the spy (silly reason is, that Raiden was Spy round 1 XD)

Oh someone finally brought this up. Although, it's not impossible that he could be the spy again, I think it makes Raiden being the spy more unlikely.

I think this has already been mentioned, and by Kleene herself no less, but that is not, in fact, how probabilities work. At the beginning of the game, everyone had a chance of 1/22 of being the spy. That includes Raiden.

Here is what Kleene said on the matter:

*throws math book at KL*
The chance of me being a special role is 1/22. Same chance for me being the spy, is also 1/22. (4,54%) Which is the same for everyone
But I like this. Yes yes! Don't vote Kleene!

That being said, I'm not saying that Raiden is definitely the spy, but we really shouldn't exclude him based on false logic like that. Togop brought up a reason to suspect him, and based on that I decided to go through with voting for him. I apologize in advance if you're innocent, Raiden.

[dumytru]

The game will end with either a Spy & Informant or a Civilian & Detective victory.
If the Spy is arrested, the game ends immediately and the Detective and civilians win. If the Detective is executed by the Spy or is arrested in the daily vote, the civilians then have only two phases remaining to find the Spy and arrest them before they escape.If less than half of the original starting players remain, however, only one phase will remain before the Spy escapes. If only the Spy and Detective remain at the end with no other civilians still in play, the Spy wins automatically.

this. is why i boldly challenged the spy in my last post. 14 players remain. if the detective dies, we have utmost two phases left, at least right now, to find the spy and arrest him. if the detective dies tomorrow, the next day, or the next day, then one phase left.

Haha-- I don't really get it.

[Kleene Onigiri]

@Fujiwara: That's why I said "silly reason"

[Raiden]

That being said, I'm not saying that Raiden is definitely the spy, but we really shouldn't exclude him based on false logic like that. Togop brought up a reason to suspect him, and based on that I decided to go through with voting for him. I apologize in advance if you're innocent, Raiden.

Now I know how Meme felt when she tried to defend herself and rudely arrested.

I can see the logic in Togof's reasoning, but it's flawed in that it is incorrect; besides, if I was the Spy again Jd would have been shot dead as the first victim.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

Now I know how Meme felt when she tried to defend herself and rudely arrested.

I can see the logic in Togof's reasoning, but it's flawed in that it is incorrect; besides, if I was the Spy again Jd would have been shot dead as the first victim.

well, look at this.

(round 1)

I nominate Raiden because umm... I apparently have reasons to.
Also I said my sorries in advance Kamite :V but still sorry D:

Let's see how well we can defend ourselves V:

Whether you believe me or not, I am a civilian, uncertain what more to say which could prove that though, I mean, even if we were allowed to share our lists in the thread the spy could just fake one with seven random people since the exact number of the list was given out by Jd at the start of round 1.

@Jd: You're welcome to vote me if it makes you sleep better at night, but if it leads to my arrest all it really will have done is serve as a distraction for the spy to kill again. XD

My nominee is *obligatory drumroll as the envelope is opened*...Conan-chandesune!

and

Arresting me isn´t going to help you at all. Not sure what else I can say.

Look at how you defended yourself in round 1. in the end, you were the spy!

i believe i have not formally apologized yet, so yeah. this is part of the reason why i voted you, Meme.

[breva]

Are we doing the "post who you are going to vote for" again? Because then I'm debating whether or not going for Raiden as well since he kinda is the best lead right now, but I don't know, killing people who vote for you seems like a kinda obvious move to meor maybe I have played way too much mafia .

[Kleene Onigiri]

Now I know how Meme felt when she tried to defend herself and rudely arrested.

I can see the logic in Togof's reasoning, but it's flawed in that it is incorrect; besides, if I was the Spy again Jd would have been shot dead as the first victim.

well, look at this.

(round 1)

I nominate Raiden because umm... I apparently have reasons to.
Also I said my sorries in advance Kamite :V but still sorry D:

Let's see how well we can defend ourselves V:

Whether you believe me or not, I am a civilian, uncertain what more to say which could prove that though, I mean, even if we were allowed to share our lists in the thread the spy could just fake one with seven random people since the exact number of the list was given out by Jd at the start of round 1.

@Jd: You're welcome to vote me if it makes you sleep better at night, but if it leads to my arrest all it really will have done is serve as a distraction for the spy to kill again. XD

My nominee is *obligatory drumroll as the envelope is opened*...Conan-chandesune!

and

Arresting me isn´t going to help you at all. Not sure what else I can say.

Look at how you defended yourself in round 1. in the end, you were the spy!

i believe i have not formally apologized yet, so yeah. this is part of the reason why i voted you, Meme.

Not sure what you wanna say with that actually :V Since you can't quote how Raiden defends as a civilian yet, you can't compare it yet D:
And I think Raiden defended differently now, meaning he wrote less in his defense than during round 1 :V

[Iwamoto Yuri]

it would also be strange for Raiden to be spy twice in a row...

[Fujiwara]

For tomorrow, I'd like for us to vote for one of the following:
- Breva
- Raifuujin
- monsi
- Jecka

Why these four? Here are people Jd- and I deduced yesterday to be, if not guilty, then at least not cleared of all doubts (of being the spy):
- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme (arrested)
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Kleene Onigiri
- miyano_shiho
- RoboG55(dead)
- Kamite
- breva
- Raifuujin

Raiden will likely be voted out today. I already explained why I consider miyano_shiho to be innocent:

Now, taking into account the fact that the spy didn't try to kill anyone on day 2 and that miyano_shiho's only post happened on day 2, there's 2 possibilities:

a) miyano_shiho is innocent because she wouldn't have forgotten to kill someone after she went to all the trouble of logging in to post, or

b) miyano_shiho purposely posted on day 2 and then didn't kill anyone to establish an alibi

I'm more inclined towards a) myself, so I don't think she's the spy.

Kamite is, I believe, the only non-poster who didn't react at all to the call for non-active players to contribute or be voted out, making no appearance until Day 4. Considering that he was voted out due to inactivity in round 1, that was a rather risky move for a spy and makes me inclined to believe him to be innocent.
Reading through Kleene's posts, she just strikes me as a Civilian or maybe Detective, although there is no hard evidence. She was the one to point out what helped her as a Detective last time and to bring up nominations.
And lastly, there's shinichi'sapprentice. Difficult that one, very difficult. I'm actually beginning to suspect that he's the informant if it's not Jd-. But I don't really think he's spy. I have no proof, though, it's just the impression I got.
And then the list looks something like this:

- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme (arrested)
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Kleene Onigiri
- miyano_shiho
- RoboG55(dead)
- Kamite
- breva
- Raifuujin

I post this now because I won't be online the next few hours and wanted to give the rest of the alliance (which will hopefully continue tomorrow!) as well as everyone else a chance to comment. I simply tried to reduce the list of suspects as much as possible based on people's posts and votes. So please feel free to disagree with my conclusions. The list is merely my suggestion and, as before, I'm open to alternatives.

[Togop]

Now I know how Meme felt when she tried to defend herself and rudely arrested.

I can see the logic in Togof's reasoning, but it's flawed in that it is incorrect; besides, if I was the Spy again Jd would have been shot dead as the first victim.

Well, the two best way to defend yourself is to offer a better candidate with some reasoning why that's a better candidate.
If you don't have one, a post with good insight may do the job. Ultimately, though, if it was easy, we wouldn't be killing any civillians. Anyway, I still find you the most likely candidate.

And last but not least:

About the voting alliance, I guess I'm in for now.

16b427

Just like shinichi'sapprentice, I'd really like to know why you wrote that.

It's not a code. After all, it's way too short to encode much information. For now you can ignore it, though I may refer to it later (probably won't).

[Stopwatch]

Raiden, the Spy, has been arrested.

Votes:

Spoiler:

Raiden <- Raifuujin, Fujiwara, Jd-, Togop
Raifuujin <- Kleene Onigiri, monsi, breva
Jecka <- Jellitto, Raiden
Jd- <- Yuri Iwamoto
Togop <- shinichi'sapprentice
breva <- Jecka
Fujiwara <- miyano_shiho
Yuri Iwamoto <- Kamite

Fujiwara was the Detective.
breva and Conan-chandesune were both the Informants.

Sorry for all the mistakes. And apparently I'm half psychic given how my random draw for Raiden's vote was his actual vote. Also, independent variables, look them up.

The Detective and Civilians Win

[Jellitto]

YAY for the civilians and the Detective!

[Jecka]

Poor Raiden DD:

[Fujiwara]

Omg, we did it! \o/
Good game everyone. I had lots of fun. I'm out with some friends at the moment, but I'll join you all for the post-game discussion later. I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. ^^