Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Six (Detective & Civilians win!)

Fujiwara · Post by **Fujiwara** » August 2nd, 2014, 6:18 pm

End of Day 6

No one was lynched.

Raiden, a Civilian, was killed by the Spy.

Votes:

Spoiler:

Start of Day 7!

Jecka · Post by **Jecka** » August 2nd, 2014, 6:29 pm

Raiden! Noooo D:

Kleene Onigiri · Post by **Kleene Onigiri** » August 2nd, 2014, 6:41 pm

noooo! Not my brother ;_;

Ekoyuhale · Post by **Ekoyuhale** » August 2nd, 2014, 7:07 pm

Raiden D=

cinnamoroll · Post by **cinnamoroll** » August 3rd, 2014, 1:17 am

D: Raiden!

I'm sorry for not voting, I thought I'd have time, but then I was so into cooking and baking that when I looked at the time, it was already past 6pm my timezone, so way too late -_-

I was so busy today. But I'll bring everyone cookies to forgive me :3 (idk if my vote would've changed anything, because I choose the person I'll vote randomly, but I feel like I'm less useless when I vote

)

Spoiler: cookies

miakakiri · Post by **miakakiri** » August 3rd, 2014, 1:40 am

Argh.... I feel completely useless. ~_~* I haven't the foggiest idea what I'm doing, or how the list is supposed to be useful. ~_~* Guess I'll just keep doing what I have been doing and hope to the heavens that something works...

MoonRaven · Post by **MoonRaven** » August 3rd, 2014, 9:48 am

hmm... who to vote... qwho to vote... I dunno

Fujiwara · Post by **Fujiwara** » August 3rd, 2014, 4:00 pm

End of Day 7

No one was lynched.

miakakiri, a Civilian, was killed by the Spy.

Votes:

Spoiler:

Start of Day 8!

Ekoyuhale · Post by **Ekoyuhale** » August 3rd, 2014, 4:09 pm

Well crap

I'm thinking Raifuu, bash, or Kleene. Anyone else have some input?

bash7353 · Post by **bash7353** » August 3rd, 2014, 5:53 pm

Okay, Day 7 just ended. That means the Detective has now had seven opportunities to get someone confirmed as non-Spy. Now, obviously it's very possible that many of those are players who've died in which case the Detective doesn't know any more than we do about them, but I kind of think it's likely this information is invaluable.

Remember that we win if we get the Spy within two phases of the Detective dying. That gives us three lynchings. Here's what I mean:

If the Detective were to make all of the investigations public showing that some of us aren't the Spy, it's likely the Detective will die next. However, that doesn't mean we'll certainly lose. We'll have the phase in which the Spy kills the Detective and the two following ones to lynch people who haven't been cleared yet.

So, Detective, please look at the names and see who it's been narrowed down to. Making your identity known might win us the game. Be sure, though. Only tell us who you are if you are positive we can win this even if you die next.

The issue is that we don't know how long the Detective is gonna live. It seems like it's all been pretty random. When the Detective does die, there won't be any will or anything like this. If there are no hints for us to be found in any messages, all of the investigation results will be lost.

There's another things, though. Look at the numbers. Right now 9 players are still alive. That's one Spy, one Informant, one Detective, and six Civilians. Suppose the Detective is found out or dies. At that stage we'll publish our lists and hopefully we can then clearly see who the remaining Informant is. That'll leave us with seven players, one of which has to be the Spy. Those odds are only gonna have to get better. Therefore, we should make sure not to hit Detective or Informant when we lynch. Better to vote off the list than on the list. At the same time we can't discuss our lists publicly because it might expose the Detective. So here's my plan:

I'll tell you this: MoonRaven is not on my list.

Okay, so what does that mean? If I am a Civilian - spoiler: I am - and not lying, it means MoonRaven is not the Detective, therefore we can safely lynch her. I am in effect telling the Spy that MoonRaven isn't the Detective, so that's one player to cross off of the suspect list, but since we lynch her anyway, that doesn't matter all that much.

If I am lying, well then I don't know anything.

I'm asking Civilians to not say anything if MoonRaven is on their list, but if not, say so publicly. If no one speaks up, I'm probably lying, and you should move to vote me. If people do confirm that MoonRaven isn't on their lists either, we can safely lynch her and should.

Ekoyuhale · Post by **Ekoyuhale** » August 3rd, 2014, 9:59 pm

I'm going to come right out and say it, because waiting and allowing anymore civilian deaths can only hurt us. Since I'm essentially useless now (I can no longer investigate), it's not that important to keep me around considering I've narrowed it down to three suspects:

Raifuujin, KleeneOnigiri, Bash are the only ones I have not cleared

One of them is the spy. If we're going to believe Bash that he's a civilian (and why not, since we can lynch him anyway even if it gets down to the last phase after I'm dead. In lieu of that, I say we lynch in the above order.

Assuming we get the lynch today (please oh please get your votes in/change them), there is a 100% chance of the civilians winning (minus me, since I'll be very, very dead =V), even calculating in the remaining informant

I was going to leave it at what I said at phase change, but I'm pretty sure coming right out as the detective will be faster and more useful so the lynchings can go down before there are too few civilians for this to be the case

One of those three is the spy, and that is my final deduction. After all, there's only one truth

TL:DR: I'm the detective, Raifuu, Kleene, and bash are the only ones I haven't cleared, and we're going to lynch them in that order; so vote Raifuu this phase

*is shot in a dark alley by the spy x_x*

bash7353 · Post by **bash7353** » August 3rd, 2014, 10:15 pm

Everyone, please confirm that Eko is actually on your list. If not, she's obviously lying about being the Detective.

She could be the Informant as well, although I'm not sure how that would help her, but we should consider all the possibilities.

Ekoyuhale is on my list!

Raifuujin · Post by **Raifuujin** » August 3rd, 2014, 10:24 pm

Honestly, if I were the spy, I wouldn't be killing someone and not sending in a vote. Because I always vote when I remember. (Going to a wedding = less time due to family being over and general losing of sleep)

But do whatever. I suppose if Eko is killed and is revealed as the detective, then at least everyone else will know the people to vote.

I'll go ahead and add that Eko is indeed on my list (first on it, even), but if you really think I'm the spy, saying that really doesn't help, I suppose.

Ekoyuhale · Post by **Ekoyuhale** » August 3rd, 2014, 11:02 pm

It's not so much that I think you're the spy, but that I haven't cleared you, and that's just the order I came out with xD

EDIT (because I hit submit too quickly and I don't want to make another post): I don't think we should change the vote from Raifuu, more so no one gets confused than anything else. Sorry Raifuu, if you're a civilian Dx

cinnamoroll · Post by **cinnamoroll** » August 3rd, 2014, 11:42 pm

Detective Eko to the rescue!!
Eko's on my list too \o/

I'm in on this strategy. Sorry Rai >_<
I hope there's no changes on who to vote, because I can't check back in until after results come out

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