ESPIONAGE: Round Two (Detective and Civilians Win)

[Memesu]

I think I´ll follow Jd. Unless someone has better idea.
(I don´t :x )

[Jecka]

I kinda want to vote with Jd- and Meme, but I dunno... I think it might be someone else, but I'm not sure who.
I'll have to think about this then.

[Togop]

I intend to vote for Meme today, because she is on the list of remaining suspects and because she posted on days 1 and 3, but not on day 2. I am, however, prepared to change my vote if someone presents a better candidate.

I also hope that more people will post who they're going to vote for and why so that we have a bit more information to work with.

I guess I'll join you on that for the lack of better options right now.
As for the suspect list, I'd like it better if the detective focuses on Jd and shinichi'sapprentice. The reason is that I have suspicions regarding both, but it would be bad if we lost any of them due to a false arrest.
The reasons why I find them suspicious:
For shinichi'sapprentice, it was his call to speak up. While staying quiet is dangerous, speaking up could also be dangerous in this game, and I did see some things in the subsequent posts which would have been better kept unmentioned for now.
For Jd, you excluded him based on the fact that informant conan-chandesune voted for him. I think that the chance it was an evil plot ishigher than 1/12, and thus the chance that Jd is the spy is higherthan the chance someone random from the list Fujiwara composed is the spy.

Still, these are not good enough reasons to arrest any of them and lose active players, hence I think it's a good idea to have them checked by the detective.

[Fujiwara]

Just a few minutes to go

(I have this feeling that I'll be killed today ...)

[breva]

I ended up voting for robog55, why? idk xd

[Stopwatch]

Meme, a Civilian, was arrested.

Votes:

Spoiler:

Meme <- shinichi'sapprentice, Togop, Fujiwara, Kleene Onigiri
miyano_shiho <- Raiden, Meme, Jd-
Raiden <- Jellitto, RoboG55
RoboG55 <- breva, monsi
Fujiwara <- miyano_shiho, Yuri Iwamoto
Kleene Onigiri <- Jecka
shinichi'sapprentice <- Raifuujin
Yuri Iwamoto <- Kamite

RoboG55, a Civilian, was killed.

List:
1. [illegible]
2. [illegible]
3. dumytru
4. [illegible]
5. [illegible]
6. miyano_shiho
7. [illegible]

Day 6 Begins

(Okay, sorry if I counted some votes from last phase, but I think I've done it right this time. Hopefully?)

[Kleene Onigiri]

Sorry Meme D:


I find Jd's conclusion strange, because he still insists on the day 2 killing thing. Jd is not someone who's ignoring clues/facts, and it is said that day 2 was a tie first, and then the voting was edited and someone arrested. There was no killing at all.
So don't put Jd off the suspect list, he's very suspicious to me for that D: For others too? Or is that just me? :x

[Memesu]

Good luck o/

[Togop]

I was looking at the votes the killed people casted the day before.
The people who died were googleearth, edogawa-kun, and RoboG55, and their votes the day before were Raiden, Togop, Raiden, respectively. While the two Raidens may be a coincidence, I'd assume it's not. I don't know much about him to decide whethe he's being framed or is the spy, though.

Raiden's posis so far:

I agree with Bash here. Jd has made used of tactics which sacrifice team members for a victory (I still remember that one MM game Jd :x) in the past...but it does put your team at a distinct disadvantage with one member down and therefore not a strategy to be used lightly and certainly not at the very beginning of a game.

My theory so far is that it's likely the Spy either missed the informant's signal or the first kill was a shot in the dark because they somehow missed sending out orders during prep phase since I doubt the Spy intentionally would kill one of their own allies this early in the game.

If I were to guesstimate, the reason could be that neither of you send in a vote for this phase, so the GM force-voted the top of your list--which happened to be Cider--forgetting she already were arrested, and retconned it to the next on the list: dumytru. :V

Then he went silent (may have something to do with the call not to vote for silent people soon after his second post).
In light of that my vote will be for Raiden unless I'm convinced otherwise. I'm posting this early in the day to give people a reasonable chance to convince me otherwise. After all, it's possible the spy is framing him.

[Fujiwara]

Sorry Meme.

I find Jd's conclusion strange, because he still insists on the day 2 killing thing. Jd is not someone who's ignoring clues/facts, and it is said that day 2 was a tie first, and then the voting was edited and someone arrested. There was no killing at all.
So don't put Jd off the suspect list, he's very suspicious to me for that D: For others too? Or is that just me? :x

I still think Jd- might be the second informant, as I said, but I don't really think he's the spy. And since no one but Jd- reacted to the post where I pointed out my suspicions, I decided to drop the matter, since it seems more efficient to look for the spy instead.

I was looking at the votes the killed people casted the day before.
The people who died were googleearth, edogawa-kun, and RoboG55, and their votes the day before were Raiden, Togop, Raiden, respectively. While the two Raidens may be a coincidence, I'd assume it's not. I don't know much about him to decide whether he's being framed or is the spy, though.
[...]
In light of that my vote will be for Raiden unless I'm convinced otherwise. I'm posting this early in the day to give people a reasonable chance to convince me otherwise. After all, it's possible the spy is framing him.

Good catch. There is also the fact that Raiden was featured on Edogawa's list:

Edogawa4869, a Civilian, was killed.

List:
1. [illegible]
2. [illegible]
3. [illegible]
4. Raiden
5. [illegible]
6. Jd-
7. [illegible]

I think I shall vote for Raiden too unless someone presents a better alternative.

[Jd-]

I find Jd's conclusion strange, because he still insists on the day 2 killing thing. Jd is not someone who's ignoring clues/facts, and it is said that day 2 was a tie first, and then the voting was edited and someone arrested. There was no killing at all.
So don't put Jd off the suspect list, he's very suspicious to me for that D: For others too? Or is that just me? :x

The Day 2 thing was posted that way because I wasn't here for Day 2's reveal. As I posted long ago, I'm busy from 4:00~9:00'ish each day, but I decided to pop in a little early today because I may not be around until much later this time. Since I only saw you bring it up in that way, I wasn't sure if it was just speculation on your part. That's why I didn't get into that sort of meta-reasoning too much, since it relies on extraneous details that aren't results. I am comfortable striking that from the post if that is indeed what happened, and since I wasn't here at the time, I don't have a choice but to trust those that were.

I could be the Informant, but there's pretty much no way that I'm the Spy. If I were the Spy (I'm not), I would have apparently already put into play several evil plots to sacrifice people left and right. Given that the people who accused me even early on are still alive, I think you could write me off on that. (If I were the Spy, I'd downplay their accusations, shift the focus from myself onto someone else, and kill them as soon as possible while potentially doing a kill-vote to mask it) Basically: Everyone who has been talking and reasoning aloud (especially those that cast suspicion on me) would have been killed way, way earlier than now (Fujiwara would've died long ago, in that case). No matter the initial suspicion from an accuser dying, it would save me a lot of trouble later on. I'd much rather spend time misdirecting the public immediately after their death than deal with their suspicion while they're alive, personally.

What I would like to do today is set up an alliance, even if only temporarily. I would like to specifically invite the following people to join me in making a voting decision, if you're interested:

- Togop
- Fujiwara
- Yuri Iwamoto
- Jelitto

Now, everyone is more than welcome to join us, should the above decide to join in, and of course those in or out are both encouraged to nominate their own vote targets. The more that you act with this group of definitely-not-the-Spy players, the less suspicious you'll be, I'd wager. It's up to you, but I think we stand a good chance together if we can come to some natural conclusions.

I'm open to voting for Raiden today if Raiden does not speak up and give us a reason not to vote for him. It's true he's been on a lot of lists, but... that could mean he's the Detective as well. We should definitely tread lightly.

As a show of good faith, what I am also willing to do is put myself up to be voted later on, if things don't pan out and people really believe I'm the informant at that time. Essentially, we can arrange a safety net: I will put myself up to be voted out when it is only myself ("the Informant"), the Spy, and a safe amount of civilians that can then corner the Spy. Right now, there are plenty of people left, so voting out someone like me that has actively campaigned for several civilians is probably not in the best interests of the civilian population.

As for the suspect list, I'd like it better if the detective focuses on Jd and shinichi'sapprentice. The reason is that I have suspicions regarding both, but it would be bad if we lost any of them due to a false arrest.
The reasons why I find them suspicious:
For shinichi'sapprentice, it was his call to speak up. While staying quiet is dangerous, speaking up could also be dangerous in this game, and I did see some things in the subsequent posts which would have been better kept unmentioned for now.
For Jd, you excluded him based on the fact that informant conan-chandesune voted for him. I think that the chance it was an evil plot ishigher than 1/12, and thus the chance that Jd is the spy is higherthan the chance someone random from the list Fujiwara composed is the spy.

Still, these are not good enough reasons to arrest any of them and lose active players, hence I think it's a good idea to have them checked by the detective.

I wanted to reply to all of your points specifically, because I'm virtually certain that you're a civilian and could really use you as an ally.

If the Detective is out there and has even a one percent doubt that I am a civilian, PLEASE use Investigate on me.

Of course, the Detective cannot announce their results and that'd be dangerous to do so, but that would be one more person who knows I'm not the Spy and definitively so. There are plenty of players who have no evidence for or against them being the Spy, while myself and a few others (including you, Togop) are virtually certainly not the Spy. As such, I would advise to check shinichi'sapprentice and others from the list (now including Breva & Raifuujin due to the Day 2 part being nixed from my post).

I think shinichi'sapprentice is probably a civilian, but... maybe an informant. Let's keep in mind, on the subject of me being the Spy, that not only did Conan-chandesune vote for me (the man "I" apparently killed on Day One, who was also my ally in this example), I've also done a lot of campaigning--a lot--to vindicate you and several other civilians. As the Spy, it seems more productive to allow as much confusion as possible and not eliminate anyone from anyone's list. If I were indeed the Spy, I know I'd only speak up to say how confused I was like everybody else and definitely not mention four or five people as probable civilians.

Also, to address you specifically, Togop: I was one of the very earliest people to mention you were a civilian, right? If not the very first, surely I'm near the top of the list for people who have mentioned it the most and most fervently. I've definitely spent a lot of time ensuring that people don't vote for you haphazardly, because I don't want the civilians to lose a good asset (same as googleearth, who'd have been a great help at this point too, I imagine).

[Fujiwara]

What I would like to do today is set up an alliance, even if only temporarily. I would like to specifically invite the following people to join me in making a voting decision, if you're interested:

- Togop
- Fujiwara
- Yuri Iwamoto
- Jelitto

A voting alliance? That sounds like a good idea. I hope the others agree as well and we can actually make an informed arrest, instead of letting chance more or less run the game. As Kleene pointed out earlier, this also means that the detective will have a good idea of who will get arrested and can concentrate his investigative efforts elsewhere.

I'm open to voting for Raiden today if Raiden does not speak up and give us a reason not to vote for him. It's true he's been on a lot of lists, but... that could mean he's the Detective as well. We should definitely tread lightly.

Indeed, numbers alone are not a good indicator, and we certainly don't want to vote out the detective by mistake. I think Togop brought up a good reason to at least consider voting for Raiden, but as I mentioned earlier, I'm open to considering alternatives as well.

[Togop]

About the voting alliance, I guess I'm in for now.

16b427

[RoboG55]

*poker face* well good luck everyone I'll just float around here. ._.

[Stopwatch]

Request

I know some of you have been doing this already, but to those who aren't, please can you put [Espionage Round 2] (exact wording, please) in your PMs to me. This is just to make it easier to sort out from any Mafia-related PMs. Thanks ^^.