Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Six (Detective & Civilians win!)

[shinichi'sapprentice]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

dumytru! Dx< askfdhaebgawrgblf

also, why'd you vote yourself, too??! T___T

my investigations among MoonRaven, bash7353, and Stopwatch reveals that MoonRaven is not the spy. if i have to add something else of what has already been said about the Day 2 no kill, it is that it could be that the spy hasn't identified all of their informants yet? but honestly, first thing that came to mind is that the spy's Day 2 target is dumytru as well.

also, even though miyano_shiho voted the victims of Day 1 and Day 2, let us take note that Yuri Iwamoto was killed and dumytru was lynched. well, actually, i just said that dumytru must have been the Day 2 kill target. so, maybe it's best to hear what she has to say...

[miakakiri]

Argh. ~_~* I am a doof, sorry. ~_~*
I wasn't feeling well last night (spent a good chunk of the evening in Urgent Care) so I didn't get my voting done then. Tuesday is run-around-town day and we got a late start, which resulted in my completely forgetting about the game until phase change had passed, and this is why I ended up self-voting. ~_~* I realize these claims are not exactly provable, unless one talks to Archi (who isn't on the forum). What you think of me is up to you.
I still don't think I have anything particularly useful to contribute. Mostly because I'm not sure what might actually be useful. ~_~*

[Kaito Lady]

DDDDDDDDDDDDD:::::::!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry dumytru! I was voting randomly D:!

[miyano_shiho]

We have to consider the possibility, though, that the Spy intended to kill dumytru, but was unable to as we beat him or her to it. If so - and it may not be the case - Miyano voted the kill target both phases. That's interesting.

That was purely coincidental. And what do you mean by "was unable to as we beat him or her to do it"? It's not like anyone had announced they were voting for dumytru.

As for my reason for voting him, I did somehow imply in my post yesterday that I was going to vote for a player who posted on D1, since I suspect that the informants are among them. The Yuri vote was also a coincidence. Besides, if I were the spy, I wouldn't want to do that when I know it would make people suspicious of me.

For tracking purposes (I might do this every phase)...
People who posted on D2
bash7353 (5)
miakakiri (2)
Jecka (3)
Stopwatch (5)
cinnamoroll (2)
Ekoyuhale (3)
Kaito Lady (2)
shinichi'sapprentice (2)
Raifuujin (1)
Jellitto (1)
miyano_shiho (1)
FuruyAkai (1)
MoonRaven (1)
Nemomon (1)
Kleene Onigiri (1)

I believe at this point, everybody has already posted. Only Raiden and darkest absol didn't post on D2, although they did on D1. I don't know if this tells us much, though.

[dumytru]

No particular reason behind my self-vote. I simply forgot about it.
I was really tired, so I went to sleep without sending it.

[bash7353]

We have to consider the possibility, though, that the Spy intended to kill dumytru, but was unable to as we beat him or her to it. If so - and it may not be the case - Miyano voted the kill target both phases. That's interesting.

That was purely coincidental. And what do you mean by "was unable to as we beat him or her to do it"? It's not like anyone had announced they were voting for dumytru.

I'm just referring to the order of actions. First we vote and lynch, and only afterwards the Spy gets to kill. If the Spy decided to kill dumytru, we got there first by lynching him. That's all I meant.

[MoonRaven]

I'm saying that at the moment I'm voting randomly people who are not on my list in order to avoid hitting the detective.

[FuruyAkai]

I will vote randomly until further notice.

[bash7353]

I don't really wanna bring numbers back into the game, but I don't think we should continue voting randomly.

One player is the Detective, one player is the Spy. It is much more likely for a random vote to be cast for a Civilian or an Informant, but there is a small chance we'll vote the Detective. That's just as likely as voting the Spy. When we lynch someone we might get lucky, get the Spy, and win that way, but it's also possible we'll accidentally lynch the Detective, and that might cause us to lose. Both scenarios are equally probable.

While we might inadvertently cause our own loss by lynching the one player we have to protect, I think we can be fairly certain the Spy won't lose like that. The Spy won't commit suicide.

When we lynch randomly and the Spy kills randomly, the Detective is likely to die first. That's why we need to discuss things and do things a bit more organised.

Earlier I said

If we assume that every time someone self-voted they simply failed to send in any actions, then we now have three players that have send actions Day 1, but none Day 2, just like the Spy apparently has as Yuri was killed Day 1 and no one was Day 2: DarkestAbsol, miakakiri, and Nemomon. Do we think it might be one of them?

The three Day 1 self-voters, Jex, Stop, and FuruyAkai... I think I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. I don't think they killed, and purposefully didn't vote to avoid suspicion.

We have to consider the possibility, though, that the Spy intended to kill dumytru, but was unable to as we beat him or her to it. If so - and it may not be the case - Miyano voted the kill target both phases. That's interesting.

It would be great to hear opinions on that. What do you guys think? Should we lynch DarkestAbsol, miakakiri, or Nemomon based on that? Should we not vote Jex, Stop, and FuruyAkai?

[Ekoyuhale]

I think voting the day 2 self voters is the best thing we can do. It's possible the spy didn't kill on purpose, or tried to kill dumyteu, as someone said, but we don't have a lot to go on so we may as well take what we get?

I'll be voting DarkestAbsol, as the other two seem to have the stronger excuses for not sending in actions

[Stopwatch]

@bash: I don't think me, Jecka and FuruyAkai should be cleared because the trick thing is easy to pull off. However, Day 1 self-voting can be extra risky so maybe some leeway to Jecka and FuruyAkai because of that?

And you've stumbled upon why I've been holding off on voting others and will continue to do so for now. I know I'm Civilian. If I die then it's 100% a Civilian death. That's not great, but ultimately Civilians are there to cloak the Detective in their numbers and to try to figure stuff out (and act as decoys if possible. I may have blown that option for me though). If I vote elsewhere I may hit the Spy, but I also may hit the Detective. Without knowing where to aim it's safer for a guaranteed Civilian death than a potential Detective one.

I also have a request (that someone else may have already said? But if they have they've clearly been ignored :/) that if you're going to vote randomly you say who your random target is. Yes, more information will be given to the Spy and Informants, but as it is they can just get away with saying they'll go random and then go for who they think will have the most votes. It's understandable if not everyone wants to go along with this to keep things a bit less predictable for the Spy and Informants, but if the majority of random voters could state an actual target ahead of time it would be most helpful.

EDIT: And I so need to change from self-voting at some point because otherwise it will be so obvious if I get Spy or Detective in the future :x.

[Kleene Onigiri]

Investigated Stoppy not the spy.

Hmmm... I vote FuruyAkai today :V

[miakakiri]

I am perplexed. Is it a good idea to vote people who are on your list, or a bad idea? From what I understand, the list definitely contains the Detective and the two Informants, but it might or might not contain the spy.
I have absolutely no idea how to use the list. ~_~*

I am randomly going to vote along with Kleene-san (meaning I will cast a vote for FuruyAkai) because I don't have a better idea and time is running out.

[darkest absol]

I guess I'll vote FuruyAkai too.

[Jellitto]

Randomly voted Nemomon.